Trump Denies Axios Report on Iran Sanctions Relief

Review today's market trends and stay on top of market dynamics. Good morning, listeners. Today is Tuesday, September 29, 2026. Welcome to Futures Morning Rush. Futures Morning Rush — the top choice for millions of futures professionals!

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1. The State Council meeting: Comprehensively utilize and appropriately adjust monetary policy tools, and study and implement policy measures to stabilize the real estate market and promote employment and income growth.

2. The Ministry of Commerce announced details regarding the China-U.S. Trade Council and the reciprocal tariff reduction framework of $30 billion against $30 billion.

3. The mediator is reportedly set to hold separate talks with the U.S. and Iran, focusing on the revised seven-day proposal from Iran.

4. The "15th Five-Year Plan" for the Development of New Battery Industries has been released.

5. SHFE adjusts trading limits for relevant petroleum asphalt futures contracts.

6. SASAC: Lead industry self-regulation and correct "internal competition" behaviors among some central enterprises.

7. Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region Development and Reform Commission: During the holiday period, all operating coal mines in the region shall, in principle, remain operational and maintain production levels to ensure a continuous and stable supply of coal.

8. U.S. Department of Agriculture: Last week, the United States shipped 806,776 tons of soybeans to mainland China.

As of the week ending September 27, the U.S. soybean condition rating was 58%, in line with market expectations of 58%, compared to 58% the previous week and 62% a year ago; the harvest rate was 17%, below the market expectation of 20%.

1. Li Qiang presided over a State Council executive meeting. The meeting noted that, in response to issues arising in current economic operations, the scale of countercyclical macroeconomic policy adjustments should be increased to promote sustained, high-quality economic development and strive to achieve the annual socioeconomic development goals and tasks.

2. Li Qiang presided over a State Council executive meeting. The meeting noted that a series of practical and effective incremental policies will be introduced, fiscal expenditure arrangements will be optimized, the remaining debt quota for local governments will be fully utilized, monetary policy tools will be comprehensively applied and adjusted as appropriate, and measures will be studied and implemented to stabilize the real estate market and promote employment and income growth.

3. According to the Ministry of Commerce, China and the United States have reached a consensus on a framework for reciprocal tariff reductions of $30 billion under the Trade Council. China will lower tariffs on approximately $30 billion worth of imports from the United States, including agricultural products, personal care items, medical devices, and coal.

4. According to Zhongzheng Jinniu, on September 28, Wang Shaofei, Director of the Bureau of Financial Supervision and Operational Evaluation at the State Council's State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, stated at a press conference held by the State Council Information Office that further efforts will be made to guide industry self-regulation, correct "internal competition" behaviors among some central enterprises, and promote enterprises across the industrial chain to jointly maintain a fair and orderly market environment.

5. According to data from the Shanghai Shipping Exchange, as of September 28, 2026, the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (Europe Route) stood at 2441.81 points, a decrease of 6.5% compared to the previous period.

6. Ukraine’s Minister of Agriculture: There are no positive signs regarding a ceasefire in the Black Sea, and a ceasefire is not expected in the coming months.

7. According to Reuters, an official familiar with the negotiations said mediators are expected to hold talks separately with the United States and Iran on Monday or Tuesday, with Iran’s foreign minister and the Qatari mediator remaining in the United States. The talks will focus on a revised version of Iran’s seven-day proposal, put forward during the间隙 of the United Nations General Assembly.

8. According to IRNA, Iranian Foreign Minister Alireza Aliakbari stated that on Monday (the 28th), Iran met again with Qatari mediators to discuss several proposals to be presented to the United States. Aliakbari noted that Iran has put forward conditions for the reopening of the strait, which have also been emphasized by Iran’s Supreme Leader, stating that the Strait of Hormuz can only be reopened once these conditions are fully met.

9. U.S. President Trump said: "Axios just published a report claiming that 'Trump' offered Iran sanctions relief and (the release of) frozen funds. That is untrue. I offered them nothing! The Axios report, like most other reports, is a scam designed solely to satisfy their 'Trump delusion syndrome.' They should immediately retract this false report!"

1. International precious metals futures generally closed lower; COMEX gold futures fell 4.00% to $4,148.50 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures dropped 5.82% to $61.03 per ounce. The Fed’s overall policy stance remains tight, compounded by signs of U.S. economic resilience and persistent inflationary risks, leading markets to price in heightened expectations for further rate hikes. Meanwhile, geopolitical uncertainties have not significantly boosted safe-haven demand, pressuring precious metals valuations.

2. The front-month U.S. crude oil contract rose 0.95% to close at $93.29 per barrel; the front-month Brent crude oil contract increased 1.36% to $98.77 per barrel. Negotiations between the U.S. and Iran have not made substantive progress, with Iranian officials expressing pessimism about reaching an agreement in the near term. Geopolitical supply uncertainties in the Middle East persist, while demand for readily deliverable crude oil spot supplies remains strong. Fundamental factors support higher oil prices, and institutions believe that until the Middle East conflict is clearly resolved, the risk balance favors rising oil prices.

3. All base metals in London fell: LME aluminum dropped 0.61% to $3,248.0 per ton, LME copper fell 0.99% to $14,478.0 per ton, LME nickel declined 1.00% to $16,165.0 per ton, LME zinc dropped 1.24% to $3,851.0 per ton, LME lead fell 1.27% to $1,904.5 per ton, and LME tin declined 1.54% to $53,510.0 per ton.

1. A spokesperson from the Bureau of the Americas at the Ministry of Commerce interprets the outcomes of the eighth round of China-U.S. trade consultations. The trade teams of both sides have reached an agreement that tariffs on China’s imports of coal from the U.S. will be included in the $30 billion to $30 billion reciprocal tariff reduction framework, which will facilitate China’s annual coal imports from the U.S. in 2027 and 2028.

2. Shanghai has issued local implementation guidelines for the reform of commodity housing sales. The guidelines stipulate that, starting August 28, 2026, new housing projects on land newly offered for sale will prioritize ready-to-move-in units.

3. The Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region Development and Reform Commission issued a notice on ensuring coal production and supply during the 2026 Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, stating that during this year’s two holidays, all operating coal mines in the region shall, in principle, remain operational without halting production or reducing output to ensure continuous and stable coal supply.

4. According to CCTD China Coal Market Network, the autumn concentrated maintenance of the Datong-Qinhuangdao Railway will commence on October 7 and last for 20 days, with daily shipment volumes expected to drop to approximately 1 million tons. The latest total coal inventory in the eight coastal provinces is slightly higher by 0.5% compared to the same period in 2025; the total inventory for users in the seventeen inland provinces stands at approximately 75.09 million tons, about 15 million tons lower than the same period last year.

5. According to data from the China Coal Marketing Association, as of September 20, the inventory of key monitored coal enterprises reached 19.65 million tons, an increase of 290,000 tons (1.5%) compared to September 10, but a decrease of 5.59 million tons (22.1%) year-over-year.

6. According to Mysteel, from September 21 to September 27, 2026, the total volume of iron ore arriving at China’s 47 ports was 29.846 million tons, an increase of 1.171 million tons环比; the global total iron ore shipment volume was 33.429 million tons, a decrease of 0.829 million tons环比.

7. Dazhong Mining announced that the accident has led to the suspension of production at the Reanjie Iron Mine, while operations at the company’s other mines continue normally. As investigations and aftermath management related to the accident are still ongoing, the duration of the shutdown cannot be estimated at this time.

1. SHFE: Starting from the trading session on September 30, 2026 (i.e., the night session on September 29), the maximum number of intraday opening positions for non-futures company members, overseas special non-broker participants, and clients in the petroleum asphalt futures contracts BU2610 and BU2611 shall be adjusted to 3,000 lots.

2. According to a person familiar with the matter, after a drone attack earlier this month, Saudi Arabia's critical transnational oil pipeline has been repaired and is now exporting oil through it.

3. According to Longzhong Information, as of September 28, 2026, the total inventory of soda ash in China amounted to 1.7593 million tons, a decrease of 465,000 tons from the previous week, or 2.58%. Among this, light soda ash inventory was 930,200 tons, down 198,000 tons week-over-week, while heavy soda ash inventory stood at 829,100 tons, down 267,000 tons week-over-week.

4. According to Longzhong Information data, on September 28, 2026, the total port inventory of styrene in Jiangsu was 41,800 metric tons, an increase of 200 metric tons compared to the same period last week, representing a 0.48%环比 increase. The commodity inventory stood at 20,800 metric tons, a decrease of 6,000 metric tons from the previous period, representing a 22.39%环比 decline.

5. The National Energy Administration convened a special meeting to assess the natural gas supply situation for the 2026–2027 heating season, requiring accelerated gas injection to ensure underground storage facilities are fully charged before winter and coastal LNG tanks remain at high liquid levels; detailed and practical emergency response plans must be prepared to safeguard the baseline of market supply.

6. According to five people familiar with the matter, Aramco is considering lowering its official selling price (OSP) for crude oil loaded in Omani waters to compensate buyers for increased costs due to soaring freight rates. One source said the proposed discount is currently around $9 per barrel.

7. According to TASS: Russia is preparing documents to extend the diesel export ban until October.

1. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and six other departments jointly issued the "15th Five-Year Plan for the Development of New Battery Industries." The plan outlines 19 key tasks focusing on accelerating innovation across the entire value chain, promoting industrial transformation and upgrading, improving the industrial system, enhancing scientific and technological service capabilities, and raising the quality and level of trade and investment cooperation.

2. The Shanghai Futures Exchange announces that, after review, it has approved the registration of “JNMC” Grade A Copper (Permanent Cathode-K) produced by Jinchuan Group Yongchang Copper Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of Jinchuan Group Co., Ltd., with a registered production capacity of 400,000 tons, subject to the standard pricing.

3. Yunnan Tin Company announces that, to ensure the safe and efficient operation of its tin smelting equipment and to maintain stable and efficient production thereafter, its smelting division plans to commence routine shutdown maintenance on September 30, 2026, expected to last no more than 45 days.

4. According to SMM, a medium- and small-sized secondary lead smelter in northwestern China temporarily halted production for maintenance, originally scheduled to resume on September 28. According to the latest update, the maintenance period has been extended, and resumption of operations has been postponed until after the National Day holiday (around October 8).

5. According to SMM, as of September 28, the inventory of primary aluminum ingots at major consumption centers in China was 674,000 metric tons, a decrease of 4,000 metric tons from last Thursday and a decrease of 47,000 metric tons from last Monday.

6. Dazhong Mining announced that the additional resource volume of 4.02 square kilometers around the first mining area of the Jiada lithium mine has been reviewed and registered. After this reserve increase, the total registered lithium carbonate equivalent at the Jiada lithium mine has increased from 1.4842 million tons to 2.531 million tons.

7. According to Xuzhou Release, on September 28, the 400,000-ton lithium iron phosphate project by Xuzhou Xinrui Lithium Battery officially commenced construction in the Xuzhou Economic and Technological Development Zone. This is a major initiative by GCL Group to expand into the key material sectors of power batteries and energy storage; after commissioning, the project will further enhance the supply capacity of lithium battery cathode materials.

1. Double holiday inventory buildup fails, compounded by a rush to sell pigs—live hog prices plunge sharply!

China Everbright Futures analysis points out that on Monday, the live hog futures contract for delivery in November 2026 fell sharply, with nearby contracts accelerating their convergence toward spot prices. The core driver of this decline has been a "stampede" of livestock liquidation on the supply side. While the Double Festivals traditionally represent the peak season that breeders eagerly anticipate, this year’s scenario has been completely reversed. Large-scale farms, smallholders, and secondary fattening operators all simultaneously increased their market supply ahead of the holidays, resulting in ample hog supply and directly pressuring prices downward. Meanwhile, previously held larger and medium-sized hogs, along with secondary fattened pigs, are also being released en masse, creating a "dual release" on the supply side. The lag in capacity reduction continues to exert latent medium-term pressure. Looking ahead, supply-side pressures will remain the dominant factor influencing the hog market in the fourth quarter. As the Mid-Autumn and National Day holidays approach at the end of September, downstream procurement and inventory building have failed to provide price support; the market is likely to continue experiencing strong expectations coupled with weak fundamentals.

2. The leading soda ash producer has a maintenance schedule for October; if true, this could push glass prices up due to cost pressures.

China Investment Futures research report indicates that after a brief inventory drawdown and price rally in September, the rate of inventory reduction slowed again by month-end, causing spot prices to decline. Weak spot market performance, combined with slower-than-expected capacity contraction, led to further futures price declines, with prices breaking below 900 yuan/ton on Monday. Both supply and demand for glass remain weak; following a brief inventory drawdown, the industry faces renewed risk of inventory buildup, placing significant pressure on the spot market. The tug-of-war between low valuations and weak fundamentals is expected to continue, with futures prices likely to remain range-bound at low levels. Under the current low-valuation framework, cost factors are exerting greater influence on price volatility, meaning futures prices may rise in tandem with input costs or continue to fall—thus, close attention should be paid to trends in fuel and raw material soda ash prices. It is reported that leading soda ash producers have scheduled major maintenance in October; if confirmed, this could provide cost support for glass prices. Over the longer term, further capacity reduction is necessary for glass to achieve a new balance.

1. September 30 at 9:30 AM: China's official September manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI;

2. September 30, 9:45 AM: China's September RatingDog Manufacturing PMI;

3. At 20:00 on September 30, reminder of the domestic futures exchange's holiday closure for National Day and no night session;

4. EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending September 25, USA;

5. October 1 at 0:00, the US USDA quarterly inventory report.