Article by: Tide Research
Trump has delayed implementing some new sanctions on Russia, and expectations of increased Russian fuel supplies pushed oil prices lower in early Asian trading on Monday. After pre-orders began for Apple’s first foldable smartphone, the iPhone Duo, delivery times for some orders have been pushed to January next year. Last week, U.S. stocks showed mixed performance, with the Nasdaq falling nearly 4.5% for the week while the Dow edged higher. This week, focus will be on NVIDIA’s GTC Berlin conference, as well as the earnings reports from Meta and Tesla.
The Nasdaq fell 4.48% last week, marking its eighth consecutive decline for the FANG+ index.
Last Friday, the S&P 500 fell 1.09% to close at 7,659.44; the Nasdaq dropped 2.15% to close at 26,140.03; and the Dow Jones fell 0.34% to close at 52,002.41. The VIX rose 21.45% to 19.99, while the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index declined 3.83% to 11,137.29, marking its eighth consecutive trading day of losses. The Nasdaq Golden China Index fell 1.30% to 5,695.66.
For the week, the S&P 500 fell 1.95%, the Nasdaq dropped 4.48%, the Dow rose 0.67%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index declined approximately 11.4%. The tech sector’s correction was significantly sharper than other sectors.
Among the eleven sectors, energy, utilities, consumer staples, materials, financials, and real estate rose; information technology, communication services, consumer discretionary, healthcare, and industrials fell. Oil and gas and defensive stocks held up relatively well.
Among the Magnificent Seven, only Apple closed higher, rising 0.43% to $343.46. Meta fell 3.72%, Alphabet A dropped 2.47%, Tesla declined 2.13%, Microsoft slid 1.93%, Amazon decreased 1.87%, and NVIDIA fell 1.43%. Micron dropped 5.63%; CoreWeave fell another ~12%, bringing its weekly decline to ~25%.
According to data released by the U.S. Department of the Treasury, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield was approximately 5.09% last Friday, and the 2-year yield was around 4.74%. WTI crude oil futures rose 3.51% to $101.41 per barrel, while Brent crude oil futures increased 3.72% to $109.86 per barrel. COMEX October gold futures rose 0.28% to $4,159.50 per ounce. At the time of today’s review, Bitcoin was approximately $82,100 and Ethereum was around $2,407.
Sanctions on Russia are temporarily eased, causing oil prices to decline in early Monday trading.
Last Friday, Trump signed an executive order suspending the implementation of certain sanctions and tariff measures previously approved by Congress against Russia. U.S. Secretary of State Rubio stated that the administration will assess the economic impact over a period of up to 60 days.
News of a potential supply increase caused the prolonged rise in oil prices to ease. Around 7:40 AM Beijing time on Monday, Brent crude was trading at $108.43 per barrel, down 1.30%; WTI was at $100.88 per barrel, down 0.52%.
However, Russian diesel trade remains controversial within the United States. Bipartisan members of the House previously introduced legislation calling for the revocation of related sales and import licenses and the restriction of future exemptions. It remains uncertain whether the easing of sanctions can be sustained.
The risk to Middle Eastern shipping has not subsided. According to Kpler data, the seven-day average for crude oil shipments from the Persian Gulf dropped to approximately 8.5 million barrels per day last week, down from over 20 million barrels per day the previous week. Rising Russian fuel exports are counterbalanced by ongoing disruptions to Middle Eastern supply via sea, creating opposing pressures on oil prices.
Pre-orders for Apple's foldable screen are booming, with some orders scheduled for delivery as late as January next year.
The iPhone Duo opened pre-orders last Friday, with initial deliveries scheduled to begin on October 23. After pre-orders launched, estimated delivery times on Apple’s official websites in multiple countries quickly shifted later, with some orders now pushed to late January next year.
Apple stated that demand for the new device is "unprecedented." The company has not disclosed the number of pre-orders or the initial inventory size, and it is currently unclear how much of the shipping delays are due to strong demand versus supply constraints.
The foldable screen adds a new premium product line for Apple. After its official launch on October 23, initial user feedback, supply speed, and subsequent sales will better reflect the product's performance than pre-order enthusiasm.
Last Friday, Apple was the only one among the seven giants to rise, while other major tech stocks generally declined. As earnings reports are released this week, whether revenue growth can keep pace with spending expansion will be a key focus for the tech sector.
Interest rate hike expectations are cooling, but tech stocks have yet to stop falling.
Last Friday in Bangkok, Federal Reserve Chair Powell stated that he would not pre-judge the outcome of the upcoming interest rate meeting. His remarks did not further reinforce recent expectations of a rate hike, causing the probability of an October hike to decline.
However, chip stocks continued to decline, and CoreWeave faced selling pressure after a sharp rebound on Thursday. Beyond interest rates, investors are reassessing the debt levels, financing arrangements, and cash returns of AI companies.
Therefore, this week’s earnings report shouldn’t be judged solely on whether revenue exceeded expectations. For companies that have made significant purchases of chips and expanded their data centers, it’s equally important to assess whether capital expenditures have been adjusted and whether cash flow can cover these costs. If customers continue to increase their investments, the order outlook for the semiconductor and server supply chains will become clearer.
This Week's Focus
Tuesday, October 20: At 8:30 PM Beijing time, the U.S. releases September housing starts and building permits.
Wednesday, October 21: At 5:00 PM Beijing time, Jensen Huang will deliver the keynote speech at the GTC Berlin conference. After-hours trading in U.S. markets on the same day, which is early Thursday morning Beijing time, Meta and Tesla will release their earnings reports—pay close attention to capital expenditures, cash flow, and profit margins.
Friday, October 23: The Apple iPhone Duo officially goes on sale. At 9:45 PM Beijing time, the U.S. releases preliminary PMI data for manufacturing and services in October.