Trump Announces U.S.-Iran Talks to Begin Tomorrow, Claims Agreement on Strait of Hormuz

Review today's market trends and stay on top of market dynamics. Good morning, listeners. Today is Monday, August 3, 2026. Welcome to Futures Morning Peak. Futures Morning Peak—the top choice for millions of futures professionals!

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1. The State Administration for Market Regulation provides price compliance guidance for the photovoltaic industry.

2. Four departments jointly issued 22 measures to improve financial institution governance.

3. A 2.5 million ton PTA unit in East China will be shut down for maintenance over the next two days due to unforeseen circumstances.

4. As of now, 20 coal mines in Jinzhong have resumed production, with a combined capacity of 19.8 million tons.

5. The United States and Israel are discussing a possible land blockade against Iran.

6. The China Securities Regulatory Commission has approved the registration of coke options on the Dalian Commodity Exchange.

7. Trump: U.S.-Iran negotiations to begin tomorrow; agreement already in place for the Strait of Hormuz.

1. The National Financial Regulatory Administration, the People’s Bank of China, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, and the Ministry of Finance recently jointly issued the "Opinions on Improving Financial Institution Governance," proposing 22 measures. The document clearly states that by 2029, a governance mechanism for financial institutions will be essentially established, characterized by clearly defined rights and responsibilities, aligned incentives and constraints, rigorous risk management, and efficient, standardized operations, significantly enhancing the internal stability and risk resilience of the financial system and markedly improving the quality and effectiveness of financial services in supporting high-quality development.

2. According to The Daily Telegraph, the United States and Israel are discussing a possible land blockade against Iran. Trump and Netanyahu are exploring various options to increase economic pressure on Iran, and this is one of them.

3. According to data from the Shanghai Shipping Exchange, as of July 31, the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) stood at 3,205.97 points, an increase of 143.02 points compared to the previous period. The China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) stood at 1,857.04 points, a decrease of 2.3% compared to the previous period.

4. Deputy Director Zhou Hongwei of the General Office of National Economic Comprehensive Affairs at the National Development and Reform Commission stated at a press conference that recently, our commission, in collaboration with relevant departments, is urgently developing an implementation plan for the strategy to expand domestic demand (2026–2030). Next, the National Development and Reform Commission will work with relevant departments to effectively expand domestic demand with greater intensity and more concrete measures.

5. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in July, the manufacturing purchasing managers' index declined slightly, while high-tech manufacturing continued to expand. Affected by factors such as a relatively high base from earlier rapid manufacturing growth and the entry of some manufacturing sectors into their traditional off-season, the manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.2%. Equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing continued to play a supporting and leading role.

6. According to Iran’s Tasnim News Agency, the Strait of Hormuz Authority announced that passage through the Strait of Hormuz is no longer possible due to aggressive actions by the United States. The announcement stated that once stability and calm are restored, all applications will be reviewed in order and according to schedule, with licenses issued gradually.

7. Fed's Logan stated that taking moderate action recently will reduce the likelihood of needing to take stronger action in the future. She is inclined to raise interest rates by 25 basis points.

8. According to CCTV, U.S. President Trump stated on Sunday Eastern Time: “At the request of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, and Iran, we have canceled the strike against Iran. If not for their request, we would have launched a massive attack on Iran last night—Iran is fully aware of the scale of this attack. I believe there is already an agreement regarding the Strait of Hormuz, and a denuclearization agreement will also be reached. We are engaging in negotiations with them, starting tomorrow afternoon (Tuesday morning Beijing Time).”

9. The People's Bank of China held its mid-year work conference for 2026. The meeting noted that a moderately loose monetary policy will continue to be implemented.

1. The front-month WTI crude oil contract rose 3.84% to $86.80 per barrel, down 2.81% for the week but up 25.98% for the month; the front-month Brent crude oil contract rose 4.79% to $91.04 per barrel, down 0.7% for the week but up 31.01% for the month.

2. International precious metals futures generally closed lower: COMEX gold futures fell 1.49% to $4,098.60 per ounce, down 0.79% for the week and flat for the month. COMEX silver futures fell 2.10% to $57.77 per ounce, down 1.92% for the week and 3.58% for the month.

3. Most base metals in London declined, with LME tin rising 0.68% to $55,350.0 per ton, up 2.92% for the week and 7.33% for the month; LME zinc rose 0.50% to $3,640.0 per ton, up 1.34% for the week and 2.49% for the month; LME copper edged flat at $13,803.0 per ton, up 1.16% for the week and 3.2% for the month; LME aluminum fell 0.02% to $3,195.0 per ton, up 1.12% for the week and 3.55% for the month; LME nickel fell 0.09% to $17,255.0 per ton, down 0.71% for the week and up 5.94% for the month; LME lead fell 0.79% to $1,880.5 per ton, down 0.34% for the week and up 0.29% for the month.

1. Recently, the China Securities Regulatory Commission approved the registration of coke options on the Dalian Commodity Exchange. The CSRC will urge the Dalian Commodity Exchange to complete all preparatory work to ensure the smooth launch and stable operation of coke options.

2. According to the latest survey by Mysteel, there are 43 coking coal mines in Jinzhong, with a combined capacity of 41.4 million tons. To date, 20 mines have resumed production, with a combined capacity of 19.8 million tons, and the cumulative daily raw coal output is approximately 45,600 tons, reaching 67% of the pre-shutdown level; the remaining 24 mines are still shut down, including those that resumed production and then halted again.

3. On the afternoon of July 31, one additional coal mine is expected to resume production in Qinyuan County, Changzhi, with an approved capacity of 900,000 tons and a coal type of high-sulfur lean coal. After resuming production, daily raw coal output will decrease by approximately two-thirds compared to before. Currently, two coal mines in the county have already resumed production, with a combined approved capacity of 3.6 million tons, while other mines are preparing for resumption inspections.

4. Last Friday, the union stated that workers at BHP’s iron ore operations in Port Hedland, Western Australia, plan to strike this week, with actions including a 24-hour loading ban and work stoppage. The Port Workers Union represents three unions, including the Western Australian Mining Workers Union and workers from the power and manufacturing sectors.

5. According to Gangyin E-commerce, the total urban inventory this week is 9.9632 million metric tons, an increase of 0.049 million metric tons week-over-week; the total inventory of construction steel this week is 5.6815 million metric tons, a decrease of 0.164 million metric tons week-over-week.

As of July 30, the methanol inventory at East China ports was 378,300 metric tons, compared to 238,600 metric tons on July 23, an increase of 139,700 metric tons month-over-month.

2. According to Longzhong Information, a 2.5 million ton PTA unit in East China will shut down for maintenance over the next two days due to unforeseen circumstances, with restart timing to be determined.

3. According to the National Development and Reform Commission, as of 24:00 on July 31, the retail price limits for gasoline and diesel in China were increased by RMB 685 and RMB 655 per ton, respectively. On average nationwide, the prices of Grade 92 gasoline, Grade 95 gasoline, and Grade 0 diesel increased by RMB 0.54, RMB 0.57, and RMB 0.56 per liter, respectively. Filling a 50-liter tank with Grade 92 gasoline will now cost an additional RMB 27.

4. According to SMM, starting July 31, a major alumina plant in Shandong adjusted its ion-exchange membrane liquid caustic soda procurement price, reducing it by 10 yuan/ton from 590 yuan/ton; the ex-factory price under the two-invoice system is now 580 yuan/ton (equivalent to approximately 1,813 yuan/ton on a pure basis).

5. OPEC+ agreed to increase the oil production quota for September by 188,000 barrels per day, meaning the 2023 production cuts have been officially fully offset.

On July 31, the State Administration for Market Regulation conducted price compliance guidance for the photovoltaic industry in Yancheng, Jiangsu Province. The administration will uphold a balanced approach of regulation and promotion, ensuring alignment between enterprise cost accounting and price supervision enforcement, and comprehensively employing methods such as reminders, compliance discussions, and administrative guidance to encourage photovoltaic enterprises to engage in standardized price competition. Business entities that are strongly criticized by the industry, severely disrupt market order, and fail to rectify after reminders or discussions will be dealt with seriously in accordance with the law.

2. According to Mysteel, as of July, the lithium ore inventory at 19 overseas mining lithium salt manufacturers totaled 459,000 metric tons, an increase of 0.1 million metric tons month-over-month. In July, lithium salt manufacturers generally increased their procurement activities, with trader inventories continuing to shift to overseas mining lithium salt producers. However, significant disparities existed among manufacturers: leading companies strengthened their ability to secure ore supplies, while smaller manufacturers, facing uncertain future supply, halted production after exhausting their existing ore inventories. Overall, lithium ore inventories across manufacturers remained relatively stable.

3. As of July 31, the weekly market average price for polysilicon (N-type dense material) was RMB 32.5 per kilogram, with a production cost of RMB 45 per kilogram, resulting in a net profit of -RMB 12.5 per kilogram. On the price side, the weekly average price for N-type dense polysilicon decreased by RMB 0.4 per kilogram compared to the previous week. On the cost side, polysilicon costs decreased by RMB 0.1 per kilogram week-over-week. The weekly net profit for the polysilicon segment decreased by RMB 0.3 per kilogram.

4. Due to recent Indonesian rare earth-related inspection policies, shipments of high-nickel pig iron from Indonesian ports have been restricted. According to SMM, the LS inspection reports are being issued in batches, and high-nickel pig iron at the ports began to be released mid-week. This shutdown event has only caused a short-term disruption to shipping schedules and has limited impact on the overall supply and demand of the high-nickel pig iron market.

1. Difficulty in removing inventory fails to meet expectations, pushing lithium carbonate below the 140,000 threshold again.

Everbright Futures noted that, specifically, the primary driver behind last week’s lithium carbonate rebound was short covering triggered by news of production cuts and inventory drawdowns. However, just one week later, market sentiment reversed. First, the relevance of the production cut news is fading. According to SMM data, as of the week ending July 30, weekly total lithium carbonate production stood at 22,841 tons, down 1,027 tons week-over-week—production cuts are indeed occurring, but the market is more focused on future supply than current levels. Second, warehouse receipt pressure and the approaching delivery period are creating “dual downward pressure.” As of July 30, lithium carbonate warehouse receipt inventory totaled 38,981 tons, down 334 tons that day. With delivery approaching, market participants fear that once Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts are canceled, the released inventory could flood the spot market and depress prices—a concern that may continue to weigh on market sentiment. In the short term, lithium carbonate is likely to remain range-bound with a weak bias, with key support levels to watch at the cost base of high-cost production capacity. The biggest medium-term variable lies after late August—when Zimbabwean lithium ore shipments surge, Jiexiawo resumes operations, and maintenance-related facilities gradually return to service, leading to expectations of marginal supply easing. If demand during the peak season falls short of expectations, lithium prices could face further downward pressure.

2. Expectations for the resumption of domestic coal mine production have strengthened, causing coking coal futures prices to drop sharply during trading.

Xinhu Futures stated that the news of one coal mine in Qinyuan, Changzhi, the site of Shanxi’s major mine disaster, resuming production has deepened market expectations for further domestic coal mine restarts, raising supply expectations for August. As a result, far-month contracts have weakened significantly, reinforcing the contango structure, with the coking coal spread shifting from a C-structure to a Back structure. On the demand side, steel performance remains weak, with pig iron output declining to around 235 ten thousand tons this week. Although there are expectations of resumptions this week, off-season restarts have added pressure to finished products, with weak end-user absorption capacity. On the macro front, the important year-end meeting provided limited statements on policy stimulus for real estate and infrastructure, leading to disappointment in incremental expectations. The market has opted to continue pushing black complex valuations lower under negative feedback dynamics. In the short term, caution is advised against premature bottom-fishing; consider taking partial profits on short positions at lower levels. Medium-term, the next two weeks represent a period for the black complex to find its emotional and fundamental bottom under negative feedback. By mid-to-late August, as seasonal shifts occur and delivery negotiations and contract rollovers conclude, strengthened demand fundamentals may present opportunities to buy valuations on dips.

1. August 3, 9:45 AM: China's July RatingDog Manufacturing PMI;

2. August 3, 22:00, U.S. July ISM Manufacturing PMI;

3. August 4 at 3:00, the US USDA Oilseeds Crush Report;

4. EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending July 31, USA;

5. August 6, 20:30, USDA Agricultural Export Sales Report for the week ending July 30 in the United States;

6. On August 6 at 20:30, the U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending August 1;

7. TBA, August 7: China's total imports and exports and key commodity data for July;

8. TBA on August 7, the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) releases its monthly report;

9. On August 7 at 20:30, the U.S. July seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate;

10. August 9 at 9:30 AM, China's July CPI and PPI data.