BlockBeats report: On September 6, ahead of the Federal Reserve’s September 15–16 policy meeting, the Trump administration is intensifying public pressure on the Fed to avoid rate hikes and even consider further cuts. Trump, Vice President Vance, Treasury Secretary Bessent, and White House senior economic advisor Navarro have all recently publicly called for maintaining or lowering interest rates.
The market currently estimates a 60% probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 25 basis points in September, primarily driven by U.S. non-farm payroll additions of 162,000 in August and an unchanged unemployment rate of 4.1%. Fed Chair Walsh has consistently emphasized inflation risks, noting that 54% of components in the PCE price index rose more than 3% over the past 12 months, and has argued that the Fed should prioritize controlling inflation.
Trump recently further stated that if the Federal Reserve does not cut interest rates, the U.S. may take measures such as halting trade with countries that have a trade surplus with the United States. As the November midterm elections approach, high prices and elevated interest rates are increasing political pressure on the Trump administration. The market will now closely monitor this week’s U.S. CPI data, which could be pivotal in determining whether the Federal Reserve raises rates or holds them steady in September.