According to CoinTelegraph, blockchain intelligence firm TRM Labs released a report predicting that the trading volume of prediction markets reached $36.6 billion in the first quarter of 2026, surpassing on-chain gambling’s $14 billion for the first time. On-chain gambling recorded a total trading volume of $51 billion for the full year of 2025, with a quarterly record of $15 billion in the fourth quarter of 2025. TRM Labs noted that despite an overall market correction in crypto, trading volumes in both sectors showed no significant decline, primarily driven by sustained activity from loyal user bases. In terms of user structure, high rollers accounted for only 6.3% of individual wallets but contributed 91.8% of total trading volume. Meanwhile, the monthly trading volume of average bettors rose from $17 million in January 2022 to $188 million in March 2026, representing a 12-fold increase in daily gamblers’ trading volume over the same period, indicating clear expansion in the new user base. On the risk front, TRM Labs highlighted that the two platforms differ in financial crime risks: gambling platforms are more susceptible to money laundering risks, while prediction markets face greater scrutiny over insider trading.
TRM Labs: Q1 2026 Predictive Market Volume Surpasses On-Chain Gambling for the First Time
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Summary
TRM Labs’ on-chain analysis shows that predictive market volume for Q1 2026 reached $36.6 billion, surpassing on-chain gambling’s $14 billion for the first time. On-chain data reveals that gambling platforms processed $51 billion in 2025, with Q4 peaking at $15 billion. Both sectors remained stable despite the crypto downturn, driven by loyal users. High Rollers, representing 6.3% of wallets, accounted for 91.8% of total volume. Monthly volume from regular bettors increased from $17 million in January 2022 to $188 million in March 2026. Daily gamblers grew 12-fold. TRM noted that gambling faces higher money laundering risks, while predictive markets attract greater scrutiny for insider trading.
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