ChainCatcher report: According to TrendForce’s latest research, the tight supply of DRAM is expected to persist until 2027. Coupled with uncertainties surrounding the validation timeline for HBM4e, AI chip manufacturers are considering reducing HBM configurations for their next-generation products. Starting in Q3 2026, NVIDIA has begun evaluating HBM options for Rubin Ultra, expanding its considerations beyond the originally planned 12-Hi HBM4e to include alternative configurations such as 8-Hi HBM4e, 12-Hi HBM4, and 8-Hi HBM4—final specifications remain undetermined. Previously, due to anticipated supply constraints for LPDDR5X continuing through 2027, NVIDIA decided to halve the SOCAMM capacity for its next-generation Vera Rubin Superchip module. TrendForce notes that the primary reasons for downgrading Rubin Ultra from 12-Hi HBM4e include: the overall DRAM shortage in 2027 will limit wafer capacity allocation toward HBM production, and uncertainties remain regarding the mass production timeline and yield ramp-up for 12-Hi HBM4e. HBM bit shipments in 2027 are projected to increase by approximately 50–60% year-over-year, still insufficient to meet growing demand. HBM suppliers are expected to maintain pricing power throughout 2027, with HBM prices anticipated to rise significantly. The final configuration will depend on memory suppliers’ wafer allocation decisions.
TrendForce: DRAM shortage to persist until 2027; NVIDIA considers downgrading Rubin Ultra HBM configuration
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Summary
TrendForce reports that the DRAM shortage will extend into 2027, impacting HBM4e validation and highlighting altcoins to watch in the memory sector. NVIDIA is evaluating Rubin Ultra’s HBM configuration, considering options including 8-Hi HBM4e, 12-Hi HBM4, and 8-Hi HBM4. On-chain data indicates LPDDR5X constraints will persist until 2027, prompting NVIDIA to reduce SOCAMM capacity in the Vera Rubin Superchip. HBM4e downgrades result from limited wafer capacity and production delays. HBM shipments are projected to increase by 50–60% in 2027, yet demand is expected to exceed supply. Pricing power remains robust, with HBM prices anticipated to rise. Final specifications depend on supplier wafer allocations.
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