BlockBeats report: On June 22, leading high-tech industry research firm TrendForce stated in its research that the ongoing tightening supply of mature-node DRAM is forcing consumer-grade DRAM buyers to turn to older-generation memory products to secure larger allocation quotas. This shift is increasing demand for traditional DRAMs such as DDR2 and DDR3, sustaining the upward price trend for these products.
The institution expects the DDR2 contract price to rise by approximately 55% to 60% in the second quarter of 2026, with an additional increase of 35% to 40% in the third quarter. This indicates that, following a strong rally in the first quarter, price pressures on DDR2 have not eased but instead intensified due to an expanding supply-demand gap.
The primary supply-side driver stems from the reallocation of advanced-process production capacity. TrendForce notes that the three major DRAM manufacturers continue to prioritize capacity for HBM and server DRAM to meet demand driven by AI infrastructure development. As a result, wafer allocations for DDR4 and other mature-process products have been reduced, compelling consumer-grade DRAM customers to turn to Taiwanese suppliers for support.
With limited supply, Taiwanese DRAM manufacturers such as Nanya Technology and Winbond have strengthened their bargaining power. TrendForce notes that, due to demand significantly exceeding the bit shipment capacity available from Taiwanese suppliers, vendors are strategically reducing wafer allocations for low-margin products and shifting capacity toward higher-value products to improve their profit structure.
Demand-side dynamics have also shifted. As consumer-grade DRAM shortages and contract prices rise, some OEM and ODM manufacturers have begun downgrading memory specifications to control overall system costs. Designs originally based on DDR4 are being changed to DDR3, and some DDR3 products are further being switched to DDR2. Customers are seeking more stable supply by opting for lower-capacity configurations or older-generation products.
This has caused the pressure of DRAM shortages to cascade down through technology generations. Supply constraints, originally concentrated on HBM, server DRAM, and DDR4, are now spreading to traditional products such as DDR3 and DDR2, highlighting the crowding-out effect of AI demand across the entire memory supply chain.
TrendForce stated that major suppliers of DDR2 include Winbond and Elpida. However, Winbond is gradually reducing DDR2 production and reallocating related capacity to higher-margin products such as DDR3, DDR4, and LPDDR4, which will further exacerbate DDR2 supply shortages.
In contrast, Winbond plans to maximize DDR2 production within Powertech’s existing wafer allocation, concentrate resources to enhance profitability of this product line, and partially fill the supply gap left by Winbond’s exit from the DDR2 market.
This round of price increases shows that AI-driven memory demand is no longer limited to high-end HBM and server DRAM. As advanced capacity is reallocated, mature nodes and older memory products are also becoming pressure points in supply-demand imbalances. For consumer electronics, industrial control systems, and certain long-lifecycle devices that still rely on DDR2 and DDR3, cost pressures may continue to rise in the second half of the year.