Treasury Buybacks Could Push Bitcoin Toward $180,000, Strategist Says

The US Treasury just doubled down on its buyback program for longer-dated securities, and Bitcoin wasted no time reacting. On August 19, the Treasury announced it would raise the cap on buyback operations targeting 10- to 30-year bonds from $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation, effective September 9 through November 4.

Bitcoin surged roughly 6% intraday following the news, pushing toward the $69,000 to $70,000 range. More than $1 billion in short positions were liquidated in the process.

When the Treasury buys back its own bonds, it injects cash into the financial system and puts downward pressure on long-term yields. Lower yields make risk assets more attractive because the opportunity cost of holding something like Bitcoin, which pays no interest, shrinks.

The 30-year Treasury yield had recently peaked at 5.34%, a multi-year high that was squeezing risk assets across the board. The buyback expansion is essentially the Treasury stepping in to relieve some of that pressure, absorbing supply in maturities where the market had become congested.

This program has been operational since 2024, designed to smooth out supply imbalances in specific parts of the yield curve. The decision to double the per-operation cap represents a meaningful escalation in scope.

Standard Chartered’s Geoff Kendrick drew a direct line between the Treasury’s action and Bitcoin’s rebound, suggesting the move supports a potential path to $100,000 by year-end 2026. That target was already on the bank’s radar, but the buyback expansion adds a concrete catalyst to what had been a more abstract thesis.

The $180,000 figure floating around in strategist commentary is a longer-term projection. It is not a direct consequence of this single Treasury announcement but rather reflects what could happen if the current favorable liquidity environment persists and deepens.

The estimated $1.1 to $1.4 billion in short liquidations on the day of the announcement tells its own story. That volume of forced buying suggests a significant portion of the market was positioned for continued downside, likely driven by the same high-yield environment that the Treasury is now working to counteract.

The Treasury buyback program has a defined window through early November, which means any liquidity tailwind it provides has an expiration date baked in.

Investors watching Bitcoin’s trajectory through year-end should be tracking two things closely: the actual execution of Treasury buybacks once operations begin in September, and whether the 30-year yield sustains its move lower from the 5.34% peak.

The gap between Bitcoin’s current range near $70,000 and Standard Chartered’s $100,000 target represents roughly 43% upside. The $180,000 scenario would require something closer to a 160% move from current levels.