Huo Xing Finance reports that on September 9, according to TradingBeats monitoring, smart money player Valen9 continued holding positions betting on Democrats winning control of Congress, while yesterday adding approximately $123,500 in WTI crude oil short positions. Between 00:06 and 01:57 today, Valen9 spent approximately $2,719 to purchase 19,400 shares of "Yes" on the prediction that the U.S. will announce the end of sanctions on Iran before the end of September. As of publication, Valen9’s relevant positions include: WTI crude oil shorts: 3,723.468 contracts, notional value of approximately $347,600, average entry price of $91.082, unrealized loss of approximately $8,490; "End Iran sanctions by end of September - Yes": holding 88,100 shares, average cost implying an implied probability of 30.44%, current probability down to 13.5%, position value approximately $11,900, unrealized loss of approximately $14,900; "Democrats control both chambers - Yes": holding 32,100 shares, average cost implying probability of 47.73%, current probability at 51.5%, position value approximately $16,500, unrealized profit of approximately $1,207; "Republicans do not control both chambers - Yes": holding 2,986 shares, value approximately $2,643; additionally, holding a combined total of approximately $112,800 in "Democrats control House - Yes" and "Republicans do not control House - No" positions. Escalating conflicts are driving up energy and living costs, potentially further eroding Republican electoral prospects; the greater the electoral pressure, the stronger the political incentive for the White House to de-escalate tensions and lower energy prices before November. A Reuters/Ipsos poll released on August 25 showed voters favored Democrats over Republicans on the issue of living costs by a margin of 36% to 28%, and Democrats also held an advantage in handling U.S.-Iran relations. A Reuters report on September 2 indicated that some of Trump’s senior advisers are pushing to prevent further escalation of the Iran conflict before the midterms to mitigate its impact on Republican electoral prospects, but this strategy is being tested by ongoing hostilities.
Trader Valen9 Shorts Crude Oil, Betting on Easing U.S.-Iran Tensions Ahead of the Election
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Summary
A trader known as Valen9 has opened a short position in WTI crude oil and increased his bet that the U.S. will lift Iran sanctions by September 30. He added approximately $123,500 in short positions and spent $2,719 on 19,400 'Yes' contracts. On-chain trading signals indicate he also holds 32,100 'Yes' contracts predicting Democratic control of both chambers and 2,986 'No' contracts predicting Republican control. Valen9 believes rising energy costs could weaken Republican prospects, shifting support and resistance levels toward de-escalation before the election.
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