Top Banks Forecast U.S. June CPI and Core CPI Inflation Data

The U.S. June CPI year-over-year prior value was 4.2%, while market consensus was 3.8%. JPMorgan, Standard Chartered, TD Securities, and Jefferies forecast 3.7%; UBS and Wells Fargo forecast 3.7%; Citigroup, BofA, Barclays, Morgan Stanley, Nomura, HSBC, and ING forecast 3.8%; Goldman Sachs, BNP Paribas, ABN AMRO, Helaba, and Capital Economics forecast 3.9%; Berenberg, DBS, Sumitomo, and Scotiabank forecast 4.0%. The U.S. June core CPI year-over-year prior value was 2.9%, while market consensus was 2.8%. Deutsche Bank forecast 2.7%; BNP Paribas forecast 3.0%; ING, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, HSBC, JPMorgan, Nomura, Jefferies, UBS, Wells Fargo, and Morgan Stanley forecast 2.8%; BofA, Capital Economics, Sumitomo, Danske, Scotiabank, Standard Chartered, UniCredit, and Helaba forecast 2.9%. AI Analysis: Top investment banks showed strong consensus in their forecasts for U.S. June CPI and core CPI, indicating a broad market agreement on the downward trend in inflation. The narrowing of core inflation expectations reflects a tangible easing of price pressures. This alignment reduces the risk of market volatility upon data release and provides a clear benchmark for the Fed’s future monetary policy decisions. The current path of declining inflation aligns with market expectations of a soft landing, further reinforcing the rationale for a shift in interest rate policy.