The price of the pre-IPO contract for ChangXin Memory on Hyperliquid has risen to $8.64.

Edited by Wu Shuo Blockchain

TL;DR

● Not a stock: CXMT is a pre-IPO perpetual contract deployed by Trade.xyz via HIP-3, tracking the USD-denominated expected value of one share of ChangXin Memory Technologies' A-share stock; it does not confer ownership of the stock, IPO allocation rights, dividends, or voting rights.

● Order book drives price: Trade.xyz sets an initial reference price of $5, after which the actual trade price is primarily determined by the buy and sell supply and demand on Hyperliquid’s on-chain order book. Since no spot trading was available prior to listing, the contract price does not need to closely track the IPO issuance price of $8.66.

● Multi-layered mechanisms control volatility: An internal oracle updates the 30-minute EWMA based on the order book impact price; the mark price integrates the oracle, a 150-second price deviation EMA, and bid/ask data to calculate profits and losses and determine liquidations.

● Price护栏 can move dynamically: CXMT’s single-tier Discovery Bound is 20%, allowing for seven re-anchoring adjustments upward and downward, so the price sequentially reached $6, $7.20, and $8.64, rather than being permanently confined within ±20% of $5.

● Switch to external price after listing: After ChangXin Technology is listed and sufficient market data is generated, the contract is expected to transition to a standard stock perpetual, with the oracle updated to use the RMB A-share price converted to USD. The price difference before and after the switch may cause sudden profit/loss fluctuations and potentially trigger liquidation.

ChangXin Technology has not yet officially listed on the STAR Market, but a tradable "stock price" is already available on Hyperliquid with 24/7 trading.

On July 14, Trade.xyz launched the CXMT perpetual contract for CXMT Pre-IPO shares via Hyperliquid’s HIP-3 framework, with the ticker xyz:CXMT. The contract has an initial reference price of $5, supports up to 5x leverage, and is settled in USDC.

After the contract went live, the price reached $6, $7.2, and $8.64 in sequence. As of July 16 at 02:13 UTC, on-chain data from Hyperliquid shows that the CXMT mark price was approximately $7.37, with a 24-hour trading volume of about $50.56 million and an open interest notional value of approximately $23.07 million.

Meanwhile, CXMT has set its A-share offering price at RMB 8.66 per share, with an offering valuation of RMB 579.18 billion, and is expected to list on July 27. Converted at an approximate exchange rate of 6.77 RMB to USD, Hyperliquid’s contract price of $7.37 equates to approximately RMB 49.9, about 5.76 times the offering price; based on an estimated post-offering share count of approximately 66.88 billion, this implies an implied market capitalization of approximately RMB 3.34 trillion. According to Reuters, some investors expect CXMT’s post-listing valuation to range between RMB 3 trillion and RMB 5 trillion.

However, the $7.37 here is not the actual stock price of CXMT, nor is it a valuation pulled from a primary market database by Trade.xyz. It is a derivative price generated by the order book, internal oracle, mark price, funding rate, and price bands.

According to Trade.xyz's official definition, a Pre-IPO Perpetual, abbreviated as IPOP, is a cash-settled linear perpetual contract used to trade market expectations of a company's public equity value after its IPO.

The CXMT contract tracks the U.S. dollar value of one ordinary A-share of ChangXin Memory Technologies, not the company's total market capitalization. After listing, the oracle will convert ChangXin's RMB share price into U.S. dollars using the prevailing exchange rate.

Holding the CXMT contract does not mean owning shares of ChangXin Technology. Traders will not receive IPO allocations, dividends, or voting rights, nor can they redeem the contract for actual shares after listing. Both long and short traders are only speculating on the future public market price of ChangXin.

Therefore, what is traded on Hyperliquid is not "how much Xeda is worth right now," but rather "what traders in this contract believe one share of Xeda might be worth after its listing."

CXMT was not directly listed by the Hyperliquid core team but was deployed by Trade.xyz via HIP-3.

HIP-3 enables third-party developers to create their own perpetual futures markets on HyperCore. HyperCore handles on-chain order books, matching, margin, liquidation, and settlement; the deployer is responsible for defining the underlying asset, oracle method, leverage limits, risk parameters, and executing conversions or settlements when necessary.

In other words, this system has two layers of division of labor:

The main responsible parties for limit orders and trade matching: HyperCore determines the actual execution price for traders' buys and sells; initial reference price and contract parameters are defined by Trade.xyz; the internal oracle and partial mark price inputs are provided by Trade.xyz; the Relayer converts order book data into funding rates and liquidation reference prices; HyperCore manages position risk based on the mark price.

Therefore, although it executes and settles trades using a fully on-chain order book, its pricing mechanism and oracle updates still rely on Trade.xyz’s market design and Relayer.

Any price discovery requires a starting point.

Based on the CXMT contract parameters, Trade.xyz has set its initial reference price at $5. The official description labels this price as a "discretionary reference price"—a value determined by the platform—and explicitly states that it is not a prediction of the IPO offering price, opening price upon listing, or post-listing stock price.

The official has not disclosed which specific financing round, valuation model, or institutional quote the $5 is based on.

Therefore, the pricing of CXMT is not entirely freely formed from scratch; instead, Trade.xyz first establishes a reference point, after which trading begins around this point on the order book.

This is also the first step in understanding the entire mechanism: the initial price comes from the deployer, while subsequent prices are primarily determined by traders.

After going live on the market, traders and market makers can submit buy and sell orders to HyperCore’s central limit order book, with trades matched according to price and time priority.

If buyers are willing to purchase at a higher price and sellers are unwilling to sell at the current price, the成交 price will rise; and vice versa. Prior to Changxin's listing, there was no external market providing a consistent, real-time spot price, and therefore no external oracle to enforce the CXMT contract to remain close to the IPO offering price of 8.66 yuan.

This is clearly different from standard cryptocurrency perpetual contracts. For BTC perpetual contracts, if they deviate from BTC prices on multiple spot exchanges, arbitrageurs can simultaneously buy and sell spot and futures to drive prices toward convergence. However, before CXMT’s listing, there was no freely tradable spot market and no actual shares available for delivery against the contract, preventing traders from executing the same risk-free arbitrage.

Therefore, the trading price of CXMT can remain above or below its issuance price for extended periods. It reflects the expectations of order book participants, not a price verifiable through spot arbitrage.

CXMT has set a 20% Discovery Bound, which is the price discovery range.

When the initial reference price is $5, the mark price can only move between $4 and $6. After sustained buying pressure pushes the internal oracle toward the upper limit, the system can reset $6 as the new reference price, shifting the next range to $4.80 to $7.20.

If the price continues to rise, the reference price can move again to $7.20, and the new upper limit will become $8.64.

This process can be represented as:

• Tier 1 cap: 5 × 1.2 = $6
• Tier 2 cap: 6 × 1.2 = $7.20
• Tier 3 cap: $7.2 × 1.2 = $8.64

CXMT allows a maximum of seven re-anchoring steps upward and seven downward. Therefore, the 20% represents only an instantaneous range relative to the current reference price at any given moment and does not mean the price is permanently confined within ±20% of the initial price.

This also explains the distinct step-like structure in CXMT’s early price movement. $6, $7.20, and $8.64 are not naturally formed technical resistance levels, but rather price barriers directly calculated from contract parameters.

This design reduces the risk of a single trade instantly pushing prices up or crashing them when a new market launches, but it can also affect price formation: when the market hits the upper limit, the chart may not reflect a natural balance of supply and demand, but rather a temporary collision with the system’s boundary.

CXMT has no external stock price available for reference, so it uses Trade.xyz's internal oracle.

According to Trade.xyz's oracle documentation, the system first calculates the impact bid price and impact ask price, which are the average prices executed on the bid and ask sides respectively, based on the specified notional amount.

It does not directly use the best bid, best ask, or the latest trade; instead, it assesses whether the order book as a whole is positioned above or below the current oracle:

• If the executable bid prices on the order book are collectively higher than the oracle, the internal oracle will gradually move upward;
• If the executable sell price is consistently below the oracle, the internal oracle will gradually move downward;
• If the current oracle is still between the bid and ask, the adjustment may be zero.

Subsequently, the system smooths this change using a continuous exponentially weighted moving average with a time constant of 30 minutes.

This means the execution price can rise quickly, but the oracle will not immediately jump by the same amount. The oracle will gradually catch up to the market only if higher bids and asks persist. Compared to using the latest execution price directly, this approach is less susceptible to being influenced by a single small, anomalous trade.

However, this also means that oracles are not independent, market-based "fair values," but rather lagged and smoothed versions of order book prices.

In addition to the last traded price and the oracle, the system uses a Mark Price to calculate unrealized PnL, margin, and liquidation.

According to the Trade.xyz documentation, the Mark Price is the median of the following three values:

1. Internal oracle price;
2. the 150-second EMA of the deviation between the oracle and the perpetual contract's mid-price;
3. The median of the best bid price, best ask price, and latest trade price.

Taking the median of three values reduces the likelihood of liquidation triggered by a single anomalous input. Additionally, each Relayer update is limited to within ±0.5% of the current price to dampen sudden spikes.

Therefore, in the CXMT market, there are several different "prices":

The price is primarily used as the execution price—the actual price at which traders buy or sell. Oracle Price: Serves as a reference for funding rate and as an input for the Mark Price. Mark Price: Used to calculate unrealized PnL, margin, and liquidation. IPO Offering Price: The actual issuance price of underlying stocks; currently does not directly constrain on-chain contracts.

When people commonly say "CXMT has risen to $8," they usually refer to the order book execution price or the marked price displayed on the interface; these two prices may not always be identical during periods of high volatility.

Standard perpetual contracts rely on funding rates to bring contract prices in line with spot prices. However, prior to CXMT's listing, there was no spot market, so the funding rate could only compare the contract price to the internal oracle.

Trade.xyz has set the funding rate multiplier for IPOP at 0.005, while the standard multiplier for regular XYZ stock perpetuals is 0.5. This means the funding rate intensity of the Pre-IPO contract is approximately 1% of that of the regular XYZ contract.

Funding rates are still paid hourly between long and short positions, but their effectiveness has been significantly reduced. This is primarily because the internal oracle itself derives data from the same order book. If funding rates become too high, single-sided positions during the prolonged wait for an IPO could incur substantial funding costs.

Low funding rates allow traders to maintain their positions expressing views on the listing price for longer periods, but at the cost of lacking a strong external price anchor. Funding rates can only suppress short-term deviations between contract prices and the internal oracle; they cannot determine whether Changxin should be valued at 500 billion or 3 trillion yuan.

After ChangXin Technology begins normal trading on the STAR Market and generates sufficient external market data, CXMT is expected to convert into a standard perpetual futures contract.

At that time, the oracle will base its price on ChangXin's A-share price and convert it using the prevailing RMB to USD exchange rate; the funding rate multiplier will also revert from 0.005 to the standard 0.5 used for regular XYZ stock perpetuals.

This conversion may be the moment when the contract truly faces its test.

If the post-listing actual stock price is close to the on-chain price, the internal oracle and external oracle can transition smoothly; if there is a significant discrepancy between them, the Mark Price may experience a sudden jump during the transition, potentially leading to changes in position profits and losses or even triggering liquidation.

Trade.xyz has set the expected listing date for CXMT on July 27, with a grace period extending until September 25. If the listing is significantly delayed or canceled, the contract may default to settlement based on the full-period TWAP from listing to settlement; however, Trade.xyz also reserves the right to use alternative settlement methods in cases of mergers and acquisitions, material adverse events, or other special circumstances.

The Cerebras Pre-IPO contract previously launched on Trade.xyz serves as a successful case study. According to Talos data, the Hyperliquid contract's VWAP in the final hour before Cerebras's Nasdaq open was approximately $354.54, compared to the actual opening price of $350—a difference of about 1.3%. However, the IPO offering price was only $185. This indicates that the contract more closely predicted the public market opening price rather than the underwriters' set offering price.

However, a single case is not sufficient to prove that this mechanism can consistently and accurately price all private companies.

The CXMT market has several specific limitations.

First, spot-futures arbitrage is not possible before listing, allowing mispricings to persist. Second, on-chain participants do not represent the entire capital market; prices may be influenced by a small number of large accounts, crypto traders’ risk preferences, and liquidity structures. Third, the discovery range artificially shapes short-term price movements, and stepwise breakouts are not solely the result of natural supply and demand. Finally, Trade.xyz is responsible for both the initial price and futures contract parameters, as well as calculating and submitting oracle inputs—this deployment risk cannot be ignored.

Therefore, the CXMT price on Hyperliquid is better understood as an open, continuous, and genuinely costed expectation indicator, rather than a definitive price following XMC's listing.

Hyperliquid did not arbitrarily calculate the stock price of an unlisted company.

More precisely, Trade.xyz first establishes an initial reference price of $5 and a set of market rules; traders then submit their genuine buy and sell intentions via an on-chain order book. An internal oracle smooths the order book’s impact price into the funding rate reference, the Mark Price manages margin and liquidations, and the Discovery Bound limits the speed of price movement over short periods. Once real stocks are listed, external A-share prices will take over the oracle.

Therefore, the pre-listing "price" on Hyperliquid can be summarized as:

Manually set starting point + order book supply and demand + internal oracle smoothing + funding rate damping + price range guardrails.

It is not the actual stock price of CXMT, nor a simple conversion of the IPO offering price, but rather a collective bet by specific market participants, backed by real money, on the future public market price.