Odaily Planet Daily report: The implied probability of the CLARITY bill being signed into law this year has dropped to 15.5%. Among the current prediction market participants, only TwoEyes and Geminae.Columbae remain consistently active on both Polymarket and Hyperliquid, still holding their previous "Yes" positions without exiting despite the declining odds. Together, they hold approximately 254,600 "Yes" shares, with a position value of about $39,500 and a combined unrealized loss of approximately $11,800. Both have average entry costs corresponding to a roughly 20% probability of enactment. TwoEyes holds about 195,500 "Yes" shares at an average entry probability of 20.2%, with an current unrealized loss of about $9,197; Geminae.Columbae holds about 59,200 "Yes" shares at an entry probability of 19.94%, with an current unrealized loss of about $2,628. Both maintain significant crypto asset exposure on the other side, with a combined notional value of approximately $19.92 million in long crypto positions. TwoEyes holds about $1.606 million in BTC longs and an additional $348,000 in crude oil shorts; Geminae.Columbae holds long positions in BTC, ZEC, LINK, and HYPE, totaling approximately $18.317 million.
The implied probability of the CLARITY Act becoming law within the year has fallen to 15.5%, with TwoEyes and Geminae.Columbae still maintaining Yes positions.
KuCoinFlashShare
Summary
The Fear and Greed Index reflects renewed caution as the implied probability of the CLARITY Act becoming law this year falls to 15.5%. TwoEyes and Geminae.Columbae, active on Polymarket and Hyperliquid, still hold 254,600 "Yes" contracts worth $39,500, with a $11,800 loss. TwoEyes holds 195,500 contracts at a 20.2% cost probability, down $9,197, while Geminae.Columbae holds 59,200 at 19.94%, down $2,628. Both also hold $19.92 million in altcoins to monitor.
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