According to Woofun AI, Musk plans to use SpaceX (SPCX.US) rocket technology on October 15 in Texas to levitate the Tesla (TSLA.US) Roadster; however, Wall Street has historically reacted negatively to Tesla’s major product launches, creating a stark contrast between market sentiment and the demonstration’s spectacle.
This demonstration will use a compressed gas thruster to lift an autonomous vehicle; Musk has warned employees that this feat is "very difficult to achieve and could go wrong." On Tuesday, Tesla (TSLA.US) shares closed at $375.23, 25% below their 52-week high. Historical data highlights risks: in 2019, Cybertruck’s window-breaking incident caused a 6% stock drop; in October 2024, the Cybercab unveiling led to an 8.3% decline; and on September 4, another related event triggered a 5.92% drop. The core issue lies in the uncertainty of revenue conversion: although Elon Musk claims short sellers have "almost pushed us to the brink," the company has survived by solving production challenges, and investors are now demanding clear pricing and delivery timelines.
According to data compiled by Woofun AI, even if all 1,000 units of the Founders Series, priced at $250,000 each, were sold, they would generate only $2.5 billion in revenue—negligible compared to a market capitalization of $1.48 trillion.
Ledger co-founder Eric Larchevêque noted that Tesla (TSLA.US) still plans to begin mass production in 2027 or 2028. The SpaceX (SPCX.US) case offers another caution: despite successful Starship orbital flights, post-IPO lock-up expirations have led to downward pressure on the stock price. Friday, October 16, as the first trading day following the announcement, will be a critical test for Tesla (TSLA.US); without a functional prototype and a reliable production timeline, spectacular demonstrations alone may only intensify disappointment.
The lack of business details will once again disappoint investors, and the earnings report scheduled for October 21 will force attention back to the overall business. This marks another opportunity for the market to assess Tesla’s (TSLA.US) true ability to transform concepts into reality, following multiple product launches; short-term volatility cannot obscure the inevitable return to long-term fundamentals.