Tesla (TSLA) reports second-quarter earnings today after US markets close. Investors already know how many cars it sold, so the real test is profit.
Wall Street expects a sharp jump in earnings per share from last quarter. Most of Tesla’s good news already came out weeks ago, though.
What Wall Street Expects
Analyst estimates cluster between $0.50 and $0.55 per share. That marks a solid jump from the $0.41 Tesla earned in the first quarter.
Revenue forecasts range from about $25.7 billion to $27.6 billion. That is up from $22.39 billion in the prior quarter.
Tesla’s earnings record has been uneven, though, it has missed some estimates in six of its last 10 quarters, according to Zacks Investment Research. Still, it beat those estimates by double digits over the last two quarters, with an average surprise of 5.48% over the last four.
Why the Delivery Numbers Won’t Move Much
Tesla already told investors it delivered 480,126 vehicles in the second quarter. That is a 25% jump from a year earlier and well above the roughly 406,000 vehicles analysts expected.
Energy storage deployments rose more than 40% from last year too. Because these figures came out weeks ago, much of that good news likely already sits in Tesla’s share price.
What Could Actually Swing the Stock
The number investors will watch closest is Tesla’s automotive profit margin, excluding regulatory credits. Tesla earns these credits by beating emissions rules, then sells them to automakers that fall short.
Estimates point to a possible dip to around 18.1%, down from 19.2% in the first quarter. Discounts and cheap financing offers could explain the drop.
Investors will also listen for updates on three things: Tesla’s Cybercab robotaxi rollout, its Full Self-Driving software, and AI infrastructure spending. Analysts frame the stakes directly.
Tesla’s stronger automotive performance should improve near-term earnings and help finance its artificial intelligence investments, but Robotaxi, Full Self-Driving and Optimus remain the main drivers of the stock’s valuation, this according to analysts at Morgan Stanley and Barclays.
Tesla’s first-quarter earnings beat came alongside a $2 billion investment in Elon Musk’s SpaceX, a company that has seen a sharp share price slide of its own this year. The report also lands in the middle of a broader corporate earnings season, following strong results from major banks earlier this month.
The Bottom Line
Options markets are pricing a swing of roughly 6% to 8% in either direction once Tesla reports. A margin beat paired with a firm robotaxi timeline could support the stock. A vague update on autonomy, even with strong headline numbers, may not be enough to change the story.