Written by: Rita
Tesla's autonomous taxi is now officially open to the public.
On September 4, Morgan Stanley released a research report noting that Tesla’s Cybercab is now offering autonomous ride-hailing services to the public in Austin, with users able to select either the Cybercab (two seats) or Model Y (four seats) via the Tesla Robotaxi app. The exact scale of commercial operations remains unclear, but multiple signals indicate that a larger-scale deployment is underway. Morgan Stanley maintains a Neutral rating with a $400 price target, representing a 6% upside from the current stock price. Tesla’s stock performance on September 3 already reflected market recognition of progress in its Robotaxi business; further upside will depend on verifiable evidence of continued fleet expansion through public data.
Native autonomous vehicle with no steering wheel or pedals
Cybercab is Tesla's first mass-produced vehicle originally designed for autonomous mobility. The vehicle eliminates the steering wheel, accelerator pedal, and brake pedal, relying entirely on the FSD (Full Self-Driving) system to operate. The cabin features only two seats and a 22-inch center display running a real-time 3D user interface built on Epic Games' Unreal Engine.
The vehicle features a matte gold finish and butterfly doors, with a ground clearance of only 144 mm for easy entry and exit. The trunk offers a capacity of 572 liters, sufficient to accommodate two checked suitcases and two carry-on bags, as well as a folded wheelchair. Accessibility is a key highlight of the Cybercab: the seat height closely matches that of a wheelchair seat, and the door handles and roof controls include Braille markings. Combined with Grok voice control, visually impaired passengers can independently summon the vehicle and operate in-car functions.
In terms of performance, the Cybercab features a single-motor, front-wheel-drive layout with a maximum power output of 163 kW and a curb weight of approximately 1.41 tons. It has a battery capacity of about 47.6 kWh and an estimated range of 483 kilometers. Tesla states that the Cybercab is expected to cost less than $30,000, with an operating cost per mile below $0.20. The vehicle supports wireless induction charging and can integrate with an automated cleaning system, creating a fully unmanned closed-loop operation for energy replenishment and cleaning.
45 vehicles registered, signs of large-scale deployment emerging
Texas DMV data shows that, as of September 3, Tesla has registered 420 autonomous vehicles in Texas, including only 45 Cybercabs and 375 Robotaxi versions of the Model Y. The number of regulated Cybercab registrations increased from 7 to 45 in the days leading up to the launch event.
The 45 vehicles are DMV registration numbers and do not equal the actual number of vehicles on the road carrying passengers during the same period. Videos circulating on X platform show a large number of Cybercabs on the streets of Austin this week. Although the exact number currently available for commercial use is unclear, the intensity of road testing activities suggests Tesla is preparing for a larger-scale fleet deployment.
Tesla has also launched a new page allowing customers to express interest in purchasing a Cybercab fleet, requiring them to provide company information, deployment areas, and collaboration preferences, with options including ride-hailing fleet procurement, mobility hubs and infrastructure, and event partnerships. Tesla views the Cybercab not only as a mobility service tool but also as a product available for direct sale.
The achievement of over 1 million miles of unsupervised autonomous driving is another significant milestone. Ashok Elluswamy, Tesla’s Vice President of Autopilot and AI, announced this progress at the Cybercab event. The figure was 380,000 miles as disclosed in the Q2 2026 earnings call. In just six weeks, an additional 620,000 miles were added, indicating a clear acceleration in growth—previously, it took Tesla over a year to reach 380,000 miles. Tesla stated that this driving occurred “without any notable incidents.”
Compared to Waymo, Tesla’s scale still shows a significant gap. Waymo has deployed approximately 4,000 autonomous vehicles across 14 U.S. cities, completing over 500,000 trips per week. In Texas alone, Waymo has 988 registered vehicles, while Tesla has a total of 420 registered vehicles in the state. Last week, Waymo announced that its cumulative driving distance has reached 200 million miles, having surpassed the one-million-mile mark as early as 2023.
The unit cost of Cybercab is approximately $23,000 to $25,000, while Waymo’s unit cost ranges from $70,000 to $150,000. The low cost is a core differentiator enabling Tesla’s Robotaxi to achieve scale. Goldman Sachs estimates Cybercab has a cost advantage of $0.05 to $0.30 per mile compared to competitors. Tesla’s average one-way fare for Robotaxi in San Francisco is $8.17—roughly half of Uber’s ($17.47) and 40% of Waymo’s ($19.69). When Cybercab is deployed at scale with lower costs, the pricing structure of the mobility market could be fundamentally reshaped.
Breakdown of the Five Business Segments Targeting $400 Price
Morgan Stanley's $400 price target consists of five components.
The core automotive business is valued at $45 per share, based on approximately 8.5 million vehicle sales in 2040, an 8.4% EBIT margin (excluding FSD), a weighted average cost of capital of 10.9%, and a 10x exit EBITDA multiple for 2040.
The network services valuation is $144 per share, the largest single component, based on an 80% FSD attachment rate by 2040 and an ARPU of $240 per month.
Tesla Mobility (i.e., the Robotaxi network) is valued at $120 per share based on a discounted cash flow model, assuming approximately 5 million Tesla vehicles operate on the network at a rate of about $1.33 per mile by 2040.
Energy business at $35 per share, humanoid robot at $56 per share (already incorporating a 50% probability discount).
Morgan Stanley’s price target of $400 corresponds to an expected P/E ratio of approximately 75x in 2027, with the valuation incorporating significant expectations for future Robotaxi network revenue and FSD subscription income. A 10% change in the FSD attachment rate impacts the valuation of network services by approximately $18 per share. Upside risks include higher FSD attachment rates, achievement of new battery cost milestones, launch of new vehicle models, accelerated deployment of Robotaxi, and progress with Optimus. Downside risks include intensified competition, execution risks related to FSD and Robotaxi, regulatory uncertainty, China market risks, and dilution effects. The NHTSA has initiated a review to determine whether the Cybercab complies with federal motor vehicle safety standards; this investigation is similar to the regulatory pathway taken by Amazon’s Zoox in 2022, which took several years to obtain federal approval.
The official launch of Cybercab signifies that Tesla's Robotaxi has entered the operational validation phase. Morgan Stanley's neutral stance is not a rejection of progress, but rather a wait for more quantifiable operational data—particularly the pace of fleet expansion. Forty-five registered vehicles are a starting point; one million miles driven is the first milestone. When these two metrics begin to grow at a faster rate, the market’s valuation of Tesla’s Robotaxi business will shift from “expectation” to “fact.”
Disclaimer
This article is a compilation and interpretation by Chaoxiang Research of a third-party brokerage research report (Morgan Stanley, September 4, 2026), combined with publicly available market information. The ratings, price targets, earnings forecasts, and related judgments cited herein reflect the views of the brokerage’s analysts and represent the position of their respective institution, not the views of Chaoxiang Research, nor do they constitute any investment advice.
The market carries risks; make decisions independently. This article should not be used as a basis for buying or selling any securities.