Wall Street is starting to warm up to the stablecoin infrastructure trade. TD Cowen analyst Bryan Bergin initiated coverage of Circle Internet Group (NYSE: CRCL) on August 3 with a Buy rating and an $82 price target, implying roughly 31% upside from where the stock was trading at the time, around $62.61.
From reserve income to revenue machine
Circle built its early business on a simple model: issue USDC, hold the reserves in short-term Treasuries, collect the interest. Bergin’s note argues Circle is actively moving past that dependency. The company’s last twelve months of revenue hit $2.86 billion, up 51% year over year. That growth is coming not just from USDC float income but from a growing slate of fee-based products including CPN, CCTP, USYC, StableFix, and developer services.
TD Cowen projects USDC circulation will grow at a 31% compound annual growth rate through 2030.
Circle’s IPO story is already complicated
Circle went public on June 5, 2025, pricing 34 million shares at $31 and landing a fully diluted valuation of roughly $8 billion at the open. Shares opened above $69, more than double the IPO price, before eventually hitting highs above $290. The stock has since traded down considerably from those peaks, which is how it ended up near $62 when Cowen initiated coverage.
Mizuho sits at Neutral with a $45 price target. Bernstein has a target of $140. TD Cowen’s $82 lands squarely in the middle of that range.
The IBM patent acquisition changes the narrative
Circle’s acquisition of IBM’s blockchain patent portfolio includes over 680 patent families. The company is positioning across payments, treasury solutions, tokenized assets, and cross-chain interoperability.
What investors should watch
Investors should pay close attention to the fee-based revenue mix as a percentage of total revenue in upcoming quarters. Circle is seeking a US bank charter, which affects its ability to deepen relationships with traditional financial institutions.
With analyst targets ranging from $45 to $140 and the stock sitting at $62, TD Cowen’s $82 target represents a bet on Circle’s platform evolution.