Study Estimates 29,588 Physical Qubits Could Break Bitcoin Keys in 61.8 Minutes

According to Huoxing Finance, research by quantum computing company Alice & Bob estimates that a fault-tolerant quantum computer with approximately 29,588 physical qubits could solve the 256-bit elliptic curve cryptography problem used by Bitcoin in about 61.8 minutes. This problem underpins the digital signatures used to authorize Bitcoin transactions; the findings represent theoretical resource estimates and do not indicate that current quantum computers possess the capability to break this encryption. The study also estimates that 22,593 physical qubits could break RSA-2048 encryption in approximately 3.14 days. The calculations employ cat qubits technology designed to reduce quantum errors, combined with more efficient error-correcting codes and improvements to Shor’s algorithm. If a sufficiently powerful quantum computer could derive private keys from publicly available public keys, the associated Bitcoin could be at risk of unauthorized signatures and asset theft. The estimated break times remain longer than Bitcoin’s average block interval of about 10 minutes; approximately 6.9 million Bitcoin are potentially at risk because their corresponding public keys have been exposed.