Strive's Warrant Strategy Could Fuel Bitcoin Buying Flywheel

Article by Xiao Bing

On September 3, Strive (ASST) stock reached $26.84 intraday, just 0.6% below $27.

Behind this 0.6% are warrants with an exercise price of approximately $27, expiring in mid-October. If ASST rises above $27, holders of these warrants will be incentivized to exercise them, potentially bringing in around $700 million in cash to the company’s balance sheet at once. Matt Cole noted that this $700 million is followed by an additional $700 million in digital credit financing capacity. A potential $1.4 billion in buying power for crypto is locked behind a single price level.

First, let’s look at what Strive has done. SEC filings show that the company purchased an additional 1,800 BTC between August 24 and 28 at an average price of approximately $79,431, bringing its total holdings to 23,156 BTC. According to Bitcoin Treasuries’ ranking, Strive is currently ranked fifth globally, behind Strategy (843,775 BTC), Twenty One Capital (43,514 BTC), Metaplanet (~43,000 BTC), and MARA Holdings (~36,300 BTC).

CEO Matt Cole said on the One Share podcast on September 3 that Strive could become the world’s second-largest publicly traded company by Bitcoin holdings by the end of 2026.

What truly deserves unpacking is how Cole’s capital structure made this ambition mathematically possible.

The stock price of a publicly traded company is typically seen as a reflection of its operational performance, but Strive’s logic is the opposite.

Its core financing mechanism is a self-reinforcing cycle: ASST stock price approaches $27 → warrant holders choose to exercise → the company receives cash → cash is used to buy BTC → BTC holdings and market ranking increase → the market revalues its BTC reserves and financing capacity → stock price rises further → more warrants are exercised.

This is Strive’s capital structure chart. Cole framed this matchup on the podcast as "shorts versus warrant holders," and he made no secret of his position: he hopes the warrants will be exercised rather than expire worthless. Given that ASST’s current short interest is approximately 30% of the float, the intensity of this matchup could escalate sharply over the next six weeks.

This mechanism presents an interesting contrast to the path taken by Strategy (MicroStrategy).

The strategy relies on convertible bonds and ATM share offerings. Convertible bonds have maturity dates, conversion prices, and interest costs; if Bitcoin experiences a sharp decline, the company may face repayment pressure when the bonds mature. With a size of 843,775 BTC, Strategy has a systemically significant buffer, but its financing structure incorporates maturity risk.

Strive has taken a completely different path. Its capital structure consists of only two securities: common stock ASST and perpetual preferred stock SATA. There are no convertible bonds, no senior debt, and no maturity dates.

SATA trades on Nasdaq with a $100 par value, offering an annualized dividend yield of 13%, paid daily on business days starting June 16, 2026, becoming the first U.S.-listed security to provide daily cash dividends. When SATA’s market price exceeds its par value, the company issues new shares through an ATM program, with proceeds directly used to purchase Bitcoin.

The terms of the transaction are clear: SATA investors receive a daily yield equivalent to 13% annualized in cash, while Strive receives perpetual capital with no maturity date. Cole’s 15 years of experience managing a $70 billion fixed-income portfolio at CalPERS have been fully integrated into this structure.

The key difference lies in the risk transmission pathway. Strategy’s convertible bondholders have the right to demand cash repayment of principal at maturity, creating liquidity pressure on the company during a Bitcoin downturn. Strive’s perpetual preferred shares have no maturity date and no mandatory redemption clause; in the worst-case scenario, the board can adjust the dividend rate. The repayment pressure shifts from “must repay on a specific day” to “pay a small amount of interest daily.”

23,156 coins, compared to Twenty One Capital’s 43,514 coins, are a difference of 20,358 coins.

At the current average price of approximately $80,000, filling this gap requires about $1.6 billion. The potential buying capacity of $1.4 billion (from $700 million in warrant exercises and $700 million in digital credit) is mathematically close. With 17 weeks remaining in 2026, approximately 1,200 BTC need to be purchased per week on average. In August alone, Strive purchased 3,156 BTC, equivalent to about 790 BTC per week.

Cole did not provide a roadmap to reach second place; he merely showcased the capital tools available to get there. This in itself is a signal: in the competition among BTC treasury companies, the size of the arsenal matters more than current holdings in shaping market expectations.

But this flywheel has a visible vulnerability.

If ASST fails to stabilize above $27 by mid-October, $700 million in warrants will expire worthless. Without warrant exercise, there is no cash inflow. Without cash inflow, there is no next large-scale coin purchase. Without large-scale purchases, the ranking narrative collapses, and the stock loses its story-driven support. When the flywheel reverses, it spins just as fast.

Cole is certainly aware of this. In the podcast, he used the term "electric finish" to describe the outcome if the warrants are successfully exercised. Translating this with a trader’s intuition: he’s drawing a call option payoff curve. Below $27, Strive survives but doesn’t surge; above $27, everything accelerates.

Approximately 30% of ASST's outstanding shares have been borrowed for short selling, a level that is extremely high in the public market.

The short seller's logic is not difficult to understand: Strive has no substantive business operations; its holding of 23,156 BTC corresponds to a market capitalization of approximately $1.85 billion, the vast majority of which is simply the value of Bitcoin itself. The stock's premium depends on market confidence in its ability to continue raising capital. If Bitcoin's price experiences a sharp correction or the warrants expire unexercised, this confidence could evaporate rapidly.

The bulls' logic is equally clear: if ASST breaks above $27 and holds that level within six weeks, the exercise of $700 million in warrants will trigger a passive buying event for BTC. Shorts will be forced to borrow more shares to maintain their positions, while warrant exercise will release a large volume of new shares into circulation—this clash of forces could generate significant price volatility.

This is not a trade based on guessing fundamentals; it’s a structured博弈 with clear triggering conditions and a defined time window. Mid-October is when the answer will be revealed.

Strive’s case reveals a fact that capital markets are rapidly learning: in this game, innovation in financing structures matters far more than predicting token prices.

Strategy pioneered a paradigm using convertible bonds; Strive pushed this paradigm to a more extreme version using perpetual preferred shares and warrant wheels. The next evolution depends on how much capital is willing to bet on the idea that "stock price is a financing tool, not a result."