After Bitcoin reclaimed $64,000, Standard Chartered reiterated its forecast that it will rise to $100,000 by the end of 2026. The bank believes the recent market pullback stems primarily from investor concerns over changes in the Treasury's strategy, rather than any deterioration in Bitcoin’s fundamental outlook.
Selling concerns point to treasury changes
Geoff Kendrick, Head of Digital Assets Research at Standard Chartered, said there is a misunderstanding in the market regarding how Strategy is utilizing its Bitcoin holdings. Unlike previously relying more on debt and equity issuance to purchase Bitcoin, Strategy is now increasingly using treasury resources to support credit products, including its perpetual preferred stock, STRC.
Standard Chartered believes this change has altered some investors' understanding of Strategy's role in the Bitcoin market and has heightened concerns about whether the company will continue selling Bitcoin in the future. If the company could provide clearer communication regarding its treasury plan, such concerns could be alleviated.
Bitcoin previously dropped to around $60,000.
Earlier this year, after Strategy sold its Bitcoin holdings, the market experienced significant volatility. Investors began questioning whether the company would continue to reduce its position, causing Bitcoin to decline from around $80,000 to near $60,000, while Strategy’s stock price and STRC also came under pressure during the same period.
- Standard Chartered maintains its $100,000 target price for the end of 2026.
- Bitcoin has recently returned to around $64,500.
- The previous pullback range was approximately $80,000 to $60,000.
However, Standard Chartered did not lower its long-term outlook during that period. The bank believed that the market had overreacted to uncertain news, and the price decline reflected more concern about Strategy’s financing and treasury arrangements than a deterioration in Bitcoin’s long-term prospects.
Institutional positions continue to be adjusted.
As Bitcoin rebounds, institutional investors are adjusting their exposure to Strategy and cryptocurrency investment products. The report notes that Standard Chartered has established a new long position in the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) call options while increasing its put option exposure.
This move occurred during a period of heightened market uncertainty caused by the conflict between the United States and Iran. Standard Chartered’s approach demonstrates that institutions are not solely relying on spot ETF holdings but are shifting toward a more balanced options strategy to manage short-term volatility.
Standard Chartered stated that if Strategy can further explain the changes to its treasury model, concerns in the market about additional Bitcoin sell-offs may continue to ease. While maintaining its long-term price target, investor confidence could gradually recover as these concerns subside.