BlockBeats news, on September 22, Standard Chartered Bank stated that following the Federal Reserve's 25-basis-point rate hike last week, gold did not continue to weaken, and the traditional negative correlation between gold and real interest rates is diminishing. The bank expects the average gold price in the fourth quarter of 2026 to reach $4,650 per ounce, higher than the current third-quarter average of approximately $4,350.
Suki Cooper, Global Head of Commodities Research at Standard Chartered, said that structural factors such as de-dollarization, currency depreciation, and sustained official sector gold purchases are supporting gold prices. Data shows that the correlation coefficients between gold and 10-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury yields are currently close to -20% and -10%, respectively, and the negative correlation with 2-year and 5-year real yields has also significantly weakened.
Meanwhile, gold ETF inflows have continued to recover, reaching 121 tons in August—the highest monthly inflow since September 2025. Standard Chartered believes that speculative positions in gold are not currently overcrowded, and profit-taking ahead of the September Fed meeting has already partially reduced long exposure, limiting further selling pressure after the rate hike.
However, Standard Chartered believes the U.S. dollar remains the primary near-term risk for gold. The bank’s economists expect the Federal Reserve to raise rates again in December, followed by maintaining interest rates unchanged throughout 2027. Cooper noted that gold’s negative correlation with the dollar is currently significantly stronger than its correlation with real interest rates; further strength in the dollar could exert short-term downward pressure on gold prices.