SPCX Plunges 11% After $15.8B AI Capex Shock and Share Unlock Concerns

SpaceX’s stock tumbled after a blockbuster AI spending reveal overshadowed solid earnings, stoking investor worry about runway, dilution and near‑term returns. Quick take - Q2 revenue: $7.8 billion vs ~ $6.8 billion expected — up 92% year‑over‑year from $4.1 billion. - Starlink remains the cash engine (connectivity revenue +66% year‑over‑year). - AI revenue jumped roughly 250% year‑over‑year to about $2.6 billion, helped by new cloud‑computing contracts. - Operating loss narrowed to $143 million from $970 million a year earlier; adjusted EBITDA nearly tripled to ~$3.5 billion. - Net loss: $541 million. The shock: massive AI capex - Total quarterly capital expenditure topped $18 billion, with $15.83 billion dedicated to AI infrastructure — versus only $749 million in AI spending a year ago. - AI capex more than doubled from $7.7 billion in Q1 to $15.8 billion in Q2. - CFO Bret Johnsen said capital spending will likely stay near current levels for the next several quarters, raising questions about how long Starlink’s cash flow will need to subsidize simultaneous AI and space development. Market reaction - SPCX plunged as much as 11% (initially down ~7.5% in after‑hours, then extended losses in pre‑market), despite a broader positive tone in US futures — the move was driven by company‑specific concerns over spending and upcoming share supply. - A scheduled post‑IPO share unlock could increase tradable SPCX shares by more than 140%, creating a potential supply overhang and adding to volatility. Analyst moves and outlook - Piper Sandler cut its price target to $140 from $156 and kept a Neutral rating, raising its fiscal‑2027 capex estimate to about $65 billion (roughly $17 billion above prior projections) and flagging valuation pressure, uncertain durability of AI cloud contracts, and higher spending. - Other firms stayed bullish: Bank of America (Buy, $235 target), JPMorgan (raised to $240), Mizuho ($200), and Morgan Stanley (Overweight, $300) — signaling that many analysts remain constructive on long‑term upside despite near‑term headwinds. Technical and immediate market levels - SPCX traded around $114.93 after hitting an intraday low of $109.21; resistance near $119.34, $130.67, $138.63 and $146.58; downside levels to watch include $109 and the July low at $104.91 (below the $135 IPO price). - The investor picture: strong revenue growth and improving profitability metrics but heavy, persistent capex and looming share unlock create a mix of long‑term promise and short‑term risk. Why crypto investors should care - SpaceX’s Starlink is a major revenue source likely to fund ambitious tech builds, and its ramp in AI compute spending ties it closer to cloud and tokenized infrastructure narratives that matter to crypto markets. - The share unlock and outsized AI capex introduce liquidity and valuation dynamics that can ripple into tech and crypto equities, especially for investors tracking $SPCX and related plays. Bottom line: SpaceX beat revenue expectations and showed strong AI and Starlink growth, but the scale and persistence of AI capital spending — plus imminent increased share supply — rocked sentiment and sent SPCX sharply lower.