SpaceX is set to release its first quarterly earnings report since going public, presenting a key test for the market.
SpaceX will announce its second-quarter earnings after market close on Wednesday, August 4, Eastern Time. As of the market open this Monday, its stock has declined for four consecutive weeks, falling approximately 20% from its IPO offering price of $135 and down a cumulative 46% from its all-time high closing price of $201.80 on June 16.
Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Colin Canfield noted in a preview report that "initial quarterly earnings expectations may be extremely skewed," suggesting that external parties have little ability to gauge the direction of performance.
Meanwhile, lock-up expiration pressure looms over the stock price. Approximately 912 million shares will be eligible for trading on August 6, with another 319 million shares set to unlock within about a week thereafter. This means potential selling pressure from early investors cannot be ignored, and market attention will focus on the stock’s reaction on Thursday and Friday—a strong earnings report may be the only catalyst to break the downward trend.
AI business revenue potential is enormous, but also carries the highest uncertainty.
SpaceX reports its financials across three business segments: Space, Connectivity, and Artificial Intelligence (AI). Among these, the AI segment was the biggest mystery of the quarter.
The core asset of the AI business is xAI, which completed its merger with SpaceX in February this year. xAI currently operates two land-based data centers: Colossus I in Tennessee and Colossus II in Mississippi. In the first quarter, the AI business generated revenue of $818 million but recorded an operating loss of $2.5 billion, with capital expenditures reaching $7.7 billion.
Entering the second quarter, revenue has become subject to significant variables. SpaceX has signed AI data center leasing agreements with Anthropic and Google, with the agreement with Anthropic reaching up to $1.25 billion per month and gradually ramping up between May and June; the Google agreement has not yet commenced. This means that actual AI revenue for this quarter is highly variable, and the trajectory of profit margins, along with the timing of new capital expenditures, remains difficult to predict.
Investors are most eager for guidance on: the company’s outlook for its AI business in the second half of this year and in 2027, and the timeline for advancing the concept of using Starship to deploy low-cost AI computing satellites into orbit.
Starlink: User growth is the key metric
Starlink is SpaceX's most reliable revenue engine. By the end of the first quarter, Starlink had 10.3 million subscribers, more than doubling from 5 million a year earlier; it generated $11.4 billion in revenue and $4.4 billion in operating profit during the quarter.
In this quarter's earnings report, user growth data will be a key focus for the market. Colin Canfield expects the company to disclose metrics such as average revenue per user (ARPU) and the backlog of contracts for enterprise and government services, which will help investors assess the depth of Starlink's commercialization and its future growth potential.
Space business: Starship progress draws attention
The space segment embodies SpaceX's core technological narrative. In the first quarter, the segment generated $4.1 billion in revenue, incurred an operating loss of $657 million, and recorded $1.1 billion in capital expenditures for new facilities and equipment. In the second quarter, Falcon 9 completed approximately 36 launches, most of which supported the deployment of its own Starlink constellation; these launches are not included in the space segment's revenue.
Starship’s progress has also drawn significant attention. In July, Starship completed its 13th flight test, and investors will be looking for updates on the timing of the 14th test, as well as the scale of the company’s ongoing investment in the rocket—Starship is a critical launch vehicle for future commercial payload missions and AI satellite deployments.
Earnings Outlook and Market Perspective
Wall Street currently expects SpaceX’s second-quarter total revenue to be approximately $6.9 billion, with an EBITDA of about $2.1 billion; annual revenue expectations are $39 billion, with an EBITDA forecast of $17.3 billion. Colin Canfield is more optimistic about this quarter, anticipating results above expectations along with positive guidance.
However, the reliability of these projections is questionable. As this is the first quarterly report since SpaceX's IPO, analysts lack historical data for calibration, and actual figures could deviate significantly.
The stock price movement remains highly uncertain. Supply pressures from unlocked shares, concerns over Musk’s divided attention, and debates over valuation itself—given the current market cap of approximately $1.4 trillion, which implies a roughly 35x multiple of projected 2026 revenue—will all be key factors influencing the market’s reaction after the earnings report. For investors, this weekend may be anything but calm.