SpaceX is entering its most critical week since going public. Its first earnings report will test the potential of its three core businesses, as nearly $100 billion in shares are set to unlock, increasing potential selling pressure. After a significant pullback, can it win back market confidence?
SpaceX (SPCX.O) will release its first financial report since going public after the U.S. market closes on Tuesday. This report will not only be the first opportunity for public market investors to see the operational performance of the company’s Starship rocket, Starlink satellite internet, and artificial intelligence businesses, but also serve as a key milestone for the market to evaluate its $1.5 trillion valuation.
Since its first trade on June 12, SpaceX's stock has experienced a significant pullback. The company's market value has declined by over $500 billion, and the stock has fallen for a fourth consecutive week, currently down nearly 50% from its intraday high of $225.64 set on June 16.
As of Monday's close, SpaceX's stock was trading at $114.53, about 15% below its IPO offering price of $135. Prior to this, SpaceX had completed the largest IPO in U.S. history, but its performance quickly weakened after listing.
Jay Ritter, an IPO expert at the Warrington College of Business at the University of Florida, says that Wall Street analysts will focus on hard metrics such as financial data, while retail investors may be more influenced by key statements made during management conference calls.
For SpaceX, the market is not just focused on quarterly profits, but on whether the company can demonstrate that its long-term growth story is translating into tangible business performance.
Core driver of revenue growth: Can Starlink continue to support business expansion?
SpaceX generated $18.7 billion in revenue last year but recorded a net loss of over $4.9 billion. Unlike large tech companies such as Microsoft and Alphabet, SpaceX’s current valuation is not based on established profitability metrics.
Based on past revenue, SpaceX has a price-to-sales ratio of approximately 70x; the company remains in a phase of heavy capital investment, burning billions of dollars in cash each quarter, with debt nearly twice the amount of its cash reserves.
Therefore, investors are first focused on the rate of revenue growth and whether Starlink’s satellite internet business can continue to be the primary growth driver.
Melissa Otto, Head of Research at S&P Global Visible Alpha, expects SpaceX's second-quarter revenue to reach $6.9 billion, primarily driven by Starlink. She noted that growth in the connectivity business will help offset operational losses from the company's space exploration and artificial intelligence initiatives.
Starlink user growth will also be a key focus in the earnings report. Nicolas Owens, a stock analyst covering SpaceX at Morningstar, expects Starlink’s user base to grow by 93% in 2026, down from 229% in 2025.
Currently, Starlink is the only profitable business segment of SpaceX. The market hopes to determine from this earnings report whether this satellite internet business can continue to fund the company’s expansion and future investments.
Can AI business become the second growth curve?
Apart from Starlink, the AI business was another major focus of this earnings report.
SpaceX is betting on AI infrastructure and model services, aiming to generate new revenue streams through computing resources, data centers, and the Grok chatbot.
According to securities filings, SpaceX's AI business generated $818 million in revenue in the first quarter of 2026. The division is currently focused on expanding AI computing capacity, including exploring the deployment of data centers in space and enhancing the performance of Grok developed by xAI.
SpaceX acquired xAI in February 2026, making artificial intelligence a key component of the company’s future strategy.
Investors will also be watching the company’s plans following its acquisition of the AI programming startup Cursor. The transaction, valued at approximately $60 billion, is expected to close in the third quarter but still requires regulatory approval.
Meanwhile, SpaceX is attempting to generate revenue by providing computing power, rather than relying solely on AI model monetization.
The company previously reached an AI computing power supply agreement with Google, expected to generate approximately $920 million in monthly revenue. Previously, Anthropic also announced the use of all computing power from SpaceX’s Colossus 1 data center in Memphis, Tennessee, and Reflection AI has also partnered with SpaceX for computing resources.
This means SpaceX's future AI strategy may not solely focus on competing with OpenAI and Anthropic on model capabilities, but rather on building a diversified revenue model through compute infrastructure, data centers, and AI services.
Ritter said that if SpaceX can scale its AI business, this sector could become a significant revenue source in the coming years, alongside Starlink and ground data center operations.
Starship decides on its long-term valuation logic
In addition to financial reports, investors will also focus on Starship, the core asset of SpaceX’s long-term growth story.
Starship is a next-generation, fully reusable rocket developed by SpaceX. If successful, the company expects to significantly reduce the cost of space transportation, thereby advancing the deployment of Starlink satellites, defense projects, and future orbital AI computing initiatives.
SpaceX stated in its IPO filing that if Starship fails to achieve full reusability or rapid turnaround, the company may face risks such as higher per-launch costs, slower large-scale satellite deployment, increased capital requirements, and damage to its brand reputation.
On July 24 local time, SpaceX completed the 13th test flight of Starship. During this flight, the approximately 400-foot-tall rocket launched from the Starbase base in Texas, and the Super Heavy booster separated from the spacecraft and returned to the Gulf of Mexico.
However, SpaceX stated that during the booster's return, an attempt was made to reignite the engines for landing, but only some engines successfully ignited, resulting in a hard landing.
The analysis firm Bernstein believes that Starship is one of the most critical factors for SpaceX to justify its high valuation. The firm notes that the company still needs to address issues such as chip supply, regulatory approvals, and the development of computing capabilities.
Due to SpaceX's plan to build an orbital data center, which requires a large number of advanced processors, and the fact that each Starship launch requires approval from the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration, these factors will affect the company's future expansion speed.
Facing dual challenges from earnings reports and lock-up expirations, can the stock regain momentum?
After this earnings report, the market will also face stock lock-up expiration pressure.
On Thursday local time, the company’s lock-up period ends, making over 9.11 billion shares eligible for trading, with a market value of approximately $100 billion. Early investors gain the opportunity to sell, which could increase market supply pressure.
Meanwhile, short sellers have begun betting on a decline in SpaceX's stock price. According to S3 Partners, as of last Friday, short investors had accumulated paper gains of approximately $8.3 billion on their SpaceX shorts. Matthew Unterman, Research Director at the firm, said this represents one of the most aggressive short positions seen ahead of a large tech company’s first earnings report following its IPO.
However, some analysts believe that the stock price decline presents a long-term investment opportunity.
Ben Harwood, an analyst at New Street Research, said that SpaceX has significant growth potential and strong competitive barriers, and the current correction may present an entry opportunity for long-term investors.
Dan Ives, partner and senior managing director at Yorkville Advisors, believes that SpaceX’s stock movement will ultimately depend on the strategic signals Elon Musk releases during the earnings call.
He said that investors are betting on SpaceX's long-term vision, so the company needs to set achievable near-term goals to demonstrate that its future growth path is executable.
For SpaceX, the significance of this first public earnings report goes beyond reporting quarterly revenue and profits—it answers a core question: Can a $1.5 trillion company built on Starlink, Starship, and an AI vision gradually turn its future narrative into real cash flow?