SpaceX will be officially added to the Nasdaq 100 Index on July 7. Following its large-scale IPO in mid-June, the company's stock price initially rose rapidly before significantly declining. Market focus has now shifted from the initial listing hype to its actual trading performance after inclusion in the index.
Rises initially after IPO, then declines
According to reports, shortly after SpaceX's IPO on June 12, its stock price rose to $225 before retreating to around $162 last week. Inclusion in the Nasdaq-100 means passive funds tracking the index will allocate capital, but this does not necessarily trigger a new upward trend.
The article notes that if a stock has already experienced a significant price increase before being included in an index, the market often anticipates and prices in the expected passive buying. By the time of official inclusion, the additional positive catalyst may already be reflected in the price.
Palantir and Strategy Case
Two recent cases illustrate this point. After Palantir was added to the Nasdaq 100 on December 23, 2024, its stock price peaked around the inclusion date and then declined by approximately 25% over the following weeks.
Strategy also entered the index on the same day. As one of the largest U.S. publicly traded companies holding Bitcoin, the stock reached a local high of nearly $543 one month before inclusion, when Bitcoin was around $100,000. Today, its share price is approximately $100, representing a drawdown of about 80% from its peak.
AI hype has raised expectations.
The article also noted that SpaceX’s IPO coincided with a surge in demand for AI infrastructure investments. At the time, semiconductor and memory stocks were generally strong, and tight supply of chips and high-bandwidth memory further boosted market sentiment.
Under this context, SpaceX’s strong performance after its listing partially reflects concentrated investor interest in the AI infrastructure theme. Referring to past cases, the stock price may not continue its previous upward momentum after being officially included in the Nasdaq-100.
- Inclusion date in the index: July 7
- Post-IPO high: approximately $225
- Last week's retracement level: approximately $162