SpaceX will be officially added to the Nasdaq-100 Index on July 7. Following its record-breaking IPO, the company is entering this core technology stock index, and related tracking funds will allocate positions according to rules; however, initial buying volume may be lower than the market's intuitive expectation based on its total valuation.
Initial weight below 1%
According to reporting口径, SpaceX's market capitalization is close to $2.1 trillion; however, due to the limited proportion of tradable shares, Nasdaq will calculate its weight based on the adjusted float-adjusted market cap. The initial weight of the company in the index is expected to be below 1%, more closely resembling that of a company with a float-adjusted market cap of approximately $300 billion.
This means that although index inclusion will bring in passive buying pressure, the actual allocation size will not fully correspond to its nominal market capitalization.
Products like QQQ will be bought passively.
Funds tracking the Nasdaq-100 Index will add SpaceX to their holdings, including Invesco’s QQQ ETF. The report states that QQQ manages approximately $500 billion in assets, and QQQM, along with related products from State Street and BlackRock, also fall within the scope of passive tracking funds.
However, due to the smaller float, these funds will need to purchase fewer shares accordingly. The report also noted that SpaceX is not expected to enter the S&P 500 for at least one year.
Historical cases do not guarantee continued price increases.
The report notes that index inclusion does not always trigger a new rally. After Palantir was added to the Nasdaq-100 on December 23, 2024, its stock price declined by approximately 25% over the following weeks.
Strategy was also added to the index on the same day. The company’s stock price had previously risen to approximately $543 in November 2024, then declined significantly and is currently around $100. Similar cases suggest that some capital may have been positioned prior to the official inclusion.
The hype around AI concepts has already been priced in.
SpaceX's IPO coincided with a surge in trading activity around AI infrastructure. Semiconductor, memory, and AI computing-related stocks had already risen broadly prior to its IPO, raising market expectations for the new offering. Inclusion in indices will expand its coverage among mainstream capital, but this does not automatically guarantee a new upward phase.