SpaceX Stock Drops After Earnings Amid Lockup Expiry Concerns

Key Insights

• SpaceX stock fell after its first earnings report as a public company.
• Revenue exceeded expectations, but heavy artificial intelligence spending concerned investors.
• About 912 million employee and early-investor shares become eligible for sale on Aug. 6.

SpaceX stock fell in extended trading after the company published its first financial results as a publicly traded company.

SPCX had risen during Tuesday’s regular session as traders positioned for the report. However, the stock reversed those gains after SpaceX disclosed higher-than-expected capital spending and another quarterly loss.

The company’s first employee and early-investor lockup expiry also remains in focus. Up to 911.5 million shares become eligible for sale on Aug. 6, potentially increasing the available supply of SpaceX stock.

Elon Musk’s SpaceX stock is expected to be highly volatile today as it releases its financial results. Data compiled by Barchart shows that the options expiring later this week have an implied volatility of 206%, much higher than the historical volatility of 75%.

A closer look at the volume and open interest metrics shows that its put/call ratio stands at 0.51 and 0.30, respectively. While this data is not always accurate, it implies that most traders expect the stock to jump since more traders have placed calls than puts.

This metric means that many investors are likely buying the dip as the stock has plunged by double digits from its all-time high. This being its first earnings as a publicly traded company, it means that the stock will have double-digit moves in the extended hours and tomorrow.

Analysts have a bullish outlook for the company, citing its strong positions in key industries like data centers, artificial intelligence (AI), satellite communication, and launch services.

Its satellite launch service has a big market share by far compared to companies like Rocket Lab. Most importantly, Starlink, its broadband service has the biggest market share in the industry.

SpaceX has become a large company in the data center industry, where it has received large contracts from companies like Anthropic, Google, and Reflection AI. Reflection has started paying it $150 million a month, while Anthropic is paying it $1.2 billion. Google will start paying it $925 million a month later this year.

The main challenge the company faces is that Grok, the AI chatbot it owns through xAI has a small market share compared to ChatGPT and Claude. Also, Chinese companies like Alibaba, Moonshot, and DeepSeek have reported strong models and are now undercutting their American rivals.

The stock will also react to the upcoming employee lockup expiry that will make it possible for them to sell their shares.

Analysts tracking the company expect it to report strong numbers. Yahoo Finance data shows that the average estimate is that its revenue jumped to over $6 billion in the second quarter. This will be a big increase since it made over $4.6 billion in the first quarter.

Still, there is a likelihood that the company will report a big loss of approximately $1.9 billion or 29 cents a share. It is also expected to report a negative free cash flow.

In addition to its earnings and guidance, SpaceX stock will react to several major events. For example, Elon Musk will likely comment on the speculated merger between SpaceX and Tesla.

The stock will also react to the guidance of its recent Cursor acquisition and its revenue growth amid the rising competition.

Analysts have a bullish outlook for the SPCX stock. For example, MarketBeat data show that the consensus estimate for the stock is $230, much higher than its current price. One analyst expects it to eventually jump to $800.

Technicals suggest the SpaceX share price may be about to jump after it reports results. It formed a double-bottom pattern at $106.40. This pattern normally leads to a strong bullish reversal.

The stock has jumped above the upper side of the descending channel. This upper side connects the highest swings since June 30th.

It has also moved above the 25-day Exponential Moving Average. Therefore, the stock may continue rising as bulls target the next key resistance level at $150.

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