SpaceX Stock Drops 11% Amid $15.8B AI Spending and Share Unlock

Headline: SpaceX shares slump after Q2 beat as $15.8B AI splurge rattles investors SpaceX’s early trading momentum reversed on Wednesday after the company posted stronger-than-expected Q2 results but revealed massive AI capital spending that spooked investors. The stock dropped as much as 11% despite revenue that handily beat Wall Street estimates. Quick take - Q2 revenue: $7.8 billion vs. ~$6.8 billion expected — up 92% from $4.1 billion a year ago. - Starlink: the main growth engine, with satellite connectivity revenue up 66% year‑over‑year. - AI revenue: jumped ~250% year‑over‑year to about $2.6 billion, helped by new cloud-computing deals. - Profitability: total operating loss narrowed to $143 million from $970 million, while adjusted EBITDA nearly tripled to $3.5 billion. Net loss: $541 million. - Capital spending shock: total Q2 capex topped $18 billion, including $15.83 billion devoted to AI infrastructure (vs. $749 million in AI spend a year earlier and $7.7 billion in Q1). - Management outlook: CFO Bret Johnsen said capex is likely to remain near current levels for several quarters, raising questions about how long Starlink will need to bankroll both AI and space development. Why investors sold The headline revenue beat was overwhelmed by the scale and persistence of SpaceX’s AI investment. Investors worried that sustained multibillion-dollar quarterly spending — and an imminent unlock that could flood the market with tradable SPCX shares — would pressure the stock in the near term. SPCX initially fell about 7.5% after hours, then extended losses to more than 11% in pre-market trade. Analyst reactions - Piper Sandler cut its price target from $156 to $140 and kept a Neutral rating, citing valuation pressure, uncertainty about AI cloud-contract durability, higher expected spending, and a looming jump in tradable shares (potentially +140% or more). Piper now models fiscal‑2027 capex around $65 billion — roughly $17 billion higher than its prior forecast. - Other firms stayed more bullish: Bank of America reiterated a Buy/$235 target; JPMorgan raised its target to $240; Mizuho kept a positive view with a $200 target. Morgan Stanley’s and other bullish forecasts signal continued long‑term confidence in SpaceX despite short‑term concerns. Market technicals and near-term risks - SPCX traded around $114.93 during the session after hitting an intraday low near $109.21, down roughly 8.7% on the session. - Key technical levels noted by traders: support around $109 (next at $104.91), resistance around $119.34 (78.6% Fibonacci), then $130–$147 on the upside. - The immediate catalyst for volatility: a post‑IPO share unlock scheduled Thursday that could materially increase the float and amplify price swings. Why it matters for crypto and tech watchers Elon Musk is increasingly pitching AI as a central pillar of SpaceX’s future valuation, and the company is rapidly expanding compute capacity to chase cloud and AI contracts. That means Starlink — and, indirectly, revenue from satellite broadband — may be asked to underwrite a much larger push into data-center scale computing. For crypto and tech investors tracking Musk’s moves, today’s print highlights the tension between near‑term cash demands and ambitious long‑term bets on AI and space. What to watch next - Any updated guidance on capex rhythm or disclosures about the size/timing of upcoming share sales. - Renewals or new multi‑year AI/cloud contracts that validate the scale of the investment. - Short‑term trading action around the share unlock and whether institutional buyers step in to absorb new supply. Bottom line: Strong revenue and rising AI sales didn’t quell investor nerves — the record $15.8B AI outlay and an impending increase in tradable shares turned a positive quarter into a near‑term sell signal. Analysts remain split: cautious on valuation and dilution, broadly constructive on SpaceX’s long‑term growth story.