SpaceX Short Position Tops $25B, 32% of Tradable Float Ahead of August 4 Earnings

Short answer: yes — SpaceX can be shorted, and right now that trade is one of the market’s most crowded and closely watched positions. Why it’s drawing attention - SPCX—which trades publicly—has attracted an outsized short position as traders bet against the stock ahead of SpaceX’s first earnings release as a public company on August 4. Short interest has exploded from roughly 40 million shares a month ago to about 206 million today, equal to roughly 32% of the tradable float. - That buildup represents roughly a $25 billion wager against the company, making the SpaceX short trade one of Wall Street’s largest bearish bets this summer. How the mechanics matter - The tradable float is thin: about 640 million shares are freely tradable out of more than 13 billion outstanding, because most insider and employee shares remain subject to lock-up rules after June’s IPO. That limited supply amplifies the risk of a short squeeze: if shorts are forced to cover, buying pressure can spike prices quickly. - A short squeeze becomes real when the trade moves against sellers — rising borrow costs, mounting losses, or a positive catalyst forces short sellers to buy back shares. SpaceX’s upcoming earnings report is the obvious potential catalyst. Price action and fundamentals - Shares have been volatile: down nearly 45% from a $225.64 peak and moving through levels around $119–$135 in recent sessions (the stock was reported about $112.20 at one point, down roughly 0.31% for that day). In June the stock was priced at $135. - On the fundamental side, trailing 12‑month revenue is roughly $19 billion (up about 33% year over year), yet the company still posts multibillion-dollar losses. The market values SpaceX near $1.48 trillion, implying a price-to-sales multiple north of 80 — a lofty premium that feeds the debate over whether the short trade is justified. Catalysts to watch - August 4 earnings: this report could either trigger a squeeze (if results surprise to the upside or narrative shifts) or let the shorts breathe if lock-up expirations afterward expand the float and ease pressure. - Lock-up expirations: once insider and employee shares begin to enter the market post‑earnings, the larger float could reduce short-induced volatility — or it could create fresh volatility if selling pressure appears. Musk’s take and market dynamics - Elon Musk weighed in on X, bluntly saying “a significant short position in SpaceX over time is very low,” a comment that quickly circulated among traders and crypto-style retail communities watching the setup unfold. The dynamics echo meme-stock and crypto short-squeeze episodes, where concentrated short interest, thin floats, and vocal retail involvement can produce rapid, large moves. Bottom line for traders - Can SpaceX be shorted profitably? Possibly — but it’s a crowded, high-risk bet hinging largely on the August 4 earnings and the timing of lock-up releases. Until then, the SpaceX short position remains one of the biggest and most uncertain trades in the market.