Odaily Planet Daily reports that SpaceX shares will enter a major vesting phase from August to November this year, with the outstanding shares expected to increase from approximately 640 million to 5.2 billion, primarily due to employee stock grants.
Analysis suggests that the large-scale unlock of employee stock holdings could lead to sustained selling pressure, even though SpaceX’s long-term prospects are viewed favorably by the market; the stock may still face downward pressure in the short term. In contrast, the institutional investor unlock from January to June 2027 is smaller and expected to have limited impact; while Musk’s shares will unlock in June 2027, his status as founder and his holding motivations suggest that near-term selling pressure is likely to be low.
Market sentiment suggests that the largest unlock pressure for SpaceX is concentrated in the second half of this year, and leveraged long investors should monitor potential selling pressure. However, the combination of employee share releases and valuation adjustments may also present institutional investors with an opportunity to accumulate positions at lower levels in the fourth quarter.