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Today's observation:
SpaceX is transitioning from a space company centered on rocket launches and satellite internet into a comprehensive infrastructure platform spanning AI computing, communication networks, and space transportation.
In the third quarter of FY2026, SpaceX generated revenue of $14.575 billion, a 161% year-over-year increase and above the market expectation of approximately $12.86 billion; net profit reached $4.404 billion, compared to a net loss of $1.054 billion in the same period last year. Adjusted EBITDA amounted to $8.809 billion, a 306% year-over-year increase, corresponding to a margin of approximately 60.4%. After the earnings report, SpaceX's stock rose about 5% in after-hours trading before the gains narrowed.
The division that truly transformed SpaceX’s business structure is the Super Intelligence (SI) department. This quarter, its revenue reached $7.56 billion, representing an 830% year-over-year increase and a 195% sequential growth, surpassing the Connectivity department, which includes Starlink, for the first time and accounting for approximately 51.9% of the company’s total revenue, making it SpaceX’s largest revenue source.
However, “AI surpassing Starlink” primarily refers to revenue scale and does not mean AI has become the company’s largest source of profit. The SI segment generated an operating profit of $431 million this quarter, corresponding to an operating margin of approximately 5.7%; the Connectivity segment achieved an operating profit of $2.367 billion, with an operating margin of approximately 45.1%. In other words, AI is driving revenue growth, while Starlink remains the company’s most important source of operating profit.
The space transportation business serves as a long-term infrastructure pillar. In Q3, SpaceX completed its first revenue-generating Starship orbital mission, deploying 26 Starlink V3 satellites into orbit. The company stated that a single Starship mission increases downlink communication capacity by approximately ten times compared to a single Falcon 9 Starlink launch. If Starship can sustainably increase its launch frequency, it will simultaneously reduce the cost of Starlink expansion and enable the deployment of a larger-scale satellite constellation.
These three businesses are forming a more complex commercial system than rocket manufacturing alone: AI drives growth, Starlink contributes profitability and recurring revenue, and rockets and Starship provide the underlying transportation capability.
One-minute data:
• Revenue for Q3 FY2026 was $14.575 billion, a 161% year-over-year increase, exceeding the market expectation of approximately $12.86 billion;
• Net profit of $4.404 billion, compared to a net loss of $1.054 billion in the same period last year;
• Diluted EPS was $0.35, compared to the market expectation of approximately $0.16;
• Operating profit of $2.791 billion, compared to an operating loss of $273 million in the same period last year;
Adjusted EBITDA was $8.809 billion, a 306% year-over-year increase, with a margin of approximately 60.4%;
• SI revenue reached $7.56 billion, representing an 830% year-over-year increase and a 195% sequential increase, accounting for approximately 51.9% of total revenue;
• SI achieved an operating profit of $431 million, ending the previous quarter's operating loss of $1.257 billion;
• Adjusted SI EBITDA was $4.953 billion, excluding items such as depreciation, stock-based compensation, and acquisition-related stock-based compensation;
• AI nominal computing power reached 1.7 GW, up from 1.4 GW in the previous quarter and 0.6 GW year-over-year;
• Connectivity revenue reached $5.248 billion, representing a 69% year-over-year increase and a 22% quarter-over-quarter increase;
• Connectivity generated an operating profit of $2.367 billion, a 99% year-over-year increase, with an operating margin of approximately 45.1%;
• Starlink consumer users reached 13.6 million, an increase of 1.6 million from the previous quarter;
• Starlink's consumer monthly ARPU is $69, up 5% quarter-over-quarter but still below $83 in the same period last year;
• Over 3,800 aircraft have installed Starlink;
• Space generated $1.767 billion in revenue, a 6% year-over-year increase and an 84% quarter-over-quarter increase;
• Space reported an operating loss of $7 million and an adjusted EBITDA of $357 million;
• Total capital expenditure for the third quarter was $19.593 billion, approximately 1.34 times the revenue for the quarter;
• Of this, SI capital expenditures amounted to $16.444 billion, accounting for approximately 84% of total capital expenditures;
• As of the end of the quarter, the company held $51.294 billion in cash and cash equivalents and $38.561 billion in tradable securities;
• Operating cash flow for the first nine months of 2026 was $13.097 billion, capital expenditures were $48.069 billion, resulting in a funding gap of approximately $34.972 billion after simple subtraction.
MSX View:
Previously, SpaceX's market valuation was primarily based on two assets: the launch advantage from reusable rockets and the global satellite communication network formed by Starlink. However, after integrating AI operations, expanding computing infrastructure, and acquiring Cursor, more than half of SpaceX's third-quarter revenue now comes from the Super Intelligence division.
SI revenue increased from $2.561 billion in the previous quarter to $7.560 billion, an increase of nearly $5 billion. The company explained that the growth was primarily driven by the launch of new cloud service agreements, the consolidation of Cursor, and increased usage of Grok among enterprises and consumers. From the completion of the Cursor acquisition on August 14 through the end of the quarter, Cursor contributed $608 million in revenue to SpaceX. Therefore, this quarter’s AI growth is not solely due to organic expansion of existing operations but also includes the impact of acquisition consolidation.
More importantly, the AI business has shifted from operational losses to profitability. SI’s operating results improved from a loss of $1.257 billion in the previous quarter to a profit of $431 million, indicating that newly added computing power is beginning to generate revenue and absorb prior costs.
However, the quality of SI's profitability still requires further observation. This quarter, SI's adjusted EBITDA reached $4.953 billion, significantly higher than its operating profit of $431 million, primarily because the adjusted metric excludes $2.473 billion in depreciation and amortization, $821 million in regular stock-based compensation, and $1.217 billion in acquisition-related stock-based compensation. For businesses requiring continuous GPU procurement and data center construction, depreciation is not a cost that can be ignored over the long term. Therefore, when evaluating the return on AI operations, operating profit, capital expenditures, and cash flow are more important than adjusted EBITDA alone.
In contrast, Starlink’s business model has become more mature. Connectivity revenue increased 69% year-over-year to $5.248 billion, with operating profit reaching $2.367 billion, accounting for the vast majority of SpaceX’s segment operating profit. Consumer users grew from 12 million to 13.6 million, while enterprise and government revenue increased 91% year-over-year, reflecting Starlink’s expansion from residential broadband to aviation, maritime, mobile communications, and government customers.
Space's revenue for this quarter increased by 84% quarter-over-quarter, primarily driven by higher launch service revenue. The first revenue-generating Starship orbital mission was particularly significant, as Starship is not merely another rocket product but rather the infrastructure enabling further expansion of SpaceX's other businesses. If Starship can deploy more V3 satellites in a single mission, the unit cost of expanding Starlink’s network capacity could decrease; in the future, if space computing and orbital data centers become viable, Starship may also handle large-scale equipment transportation. However, these long-term applications are still in the validation phase; at this stage, it is more appropriate to focus on launch frequency, reliability, and payload capacity rather than prematurely recognizing excessive revenue.
The biggest constraint this quarter remains capital investment. SpaceX's capital expenditures reached $19.593 billion, approximately $5 billion higher than its revenue for the quarter, with $16.444 billion allocated to the SI business. Although the company generated $4.404 billion in net profit and $8.809 billion in adjusted EBITDA, these metrics do not directly cover its actual investment needs.
From the beginning of the year through the end of September, the company generated $13.097 billion in operating cash flow and incurred $48.069 billion in capital expenditures. SpaceX has been able to sustain such high levels of investment largely through IPO proceeds, debt financing, and previously accumulated cash. As of the end of the quarter, cash and marketable securities totaled nearly $89.9 billion, indicating sufficient short-term liquidity. However, whether AI infrastructure investments will generate sufficiently high long-term returns remains the core issue determining the sustainability of its valuation.
Thus, this earnings report validates both SpaceX’s growth potential and its capital intensity. AI has become the largest revenue source, but its operating margin remains significantly lower than Starlink’s; Starlink continues to generate the majority of profits, though its ARPU is still below year-ago levels; Starship has unlocked new capacity potential, but research and development spending remains substantial.
Next, the most important things to watch are whether these three businesses can achieve true synergy: whether AI computing power can sustainably improve operating profit margins despite high capital investment; whether Starlink can increase per-user value through enterprise, aviation, and mobile communications; and whether Starship can expand satellite deployment and commercial launch scale at lower unit costs.
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Risk disclaimer: Macroeconomic conditions and U.S. stock market volatility are significant; the content of this article is for academic and research observation purposes only by MaiTong Research Institute and does not constitute any investment advice.