SpaceX Q2 Revenue Exceeds Expectations; Bernstein Maintains $239 Price Target

Current profits come from Starlink; future valuation depends on AI and Starship.

Key points:

· SpaceX reported second-quarter revenue of $7.81 billion, a 92% year-over-year increase; Bernstein maintains an "Outperform" rating and a $239 price target.

· The Bernstein model still assumes that the calculated price will long-term revert to approximately $10/W, and Musk's proposed $30 to $50/W has not yet been fully factored into the target price.

· Connectivity provides the current profit foundation, AI calculations determine revenue elasticity, and Starship's full reusability determines whether long-term costs can truly decline.

SpaceX's first quarterly earnings since its IPO present a more aggressive growth narrative to the market: the Connectivity business continues to generate profits,

AI computing revenue is growing rapidly, and Musk has advanced the target year for annual revenue of $1 trillion from 2031 to 2030.

and indicated it could be achieved as early as 2029.

According to the SEC filings submitted by the company, Space Exploration Technologies Corp.

Class A common stock is traded on Nasdaq and Nasdaq Texas under the ticker symbol SPCX.

After the company released its second-quarter results for the period ended June 30 on August 4, Bernstein maintained an 'Outperform' rating and a $239 price target.

Based on the closing price of $125.33 on August 4 as listed in the research report, this represents a potential upside of approximately 91%.

However, the $239 price target is not based on the full realization of the $1 trillion revenue goal.

Bernstein’s own revenue forecast for SpaceX in 2031 is $554 billion, significantly lower than management’s vision;

Its AI pricing model also assumes a long-term decline to approximately $10 per watt.

In other words, higher computational costs and more aggressive revenue targets represent potential upside beyond the current valuation.

On August 5, SpaceX's stock price further dropped to $108.27, falling 13.6% in a single day.

This indicates that the market is not solely focusing on this quarter's performance, but is also weighing AI capital expenditures, post-IPO lock-up expirations increasing stock supply, and whether Starship can enter a phase of high-frequency, low-cost launches.

Revenue increased by 92%, with Connectivity remaining the profit pillar.

In the second quarter, SpaceX's revenue reached $7.814 billion, a 92% year-over-year increase.

Axios cites the S&P Visible Alpha consensus at $6.9 billion, while the Bernstein report uses a market consensus of $6.546 billion.

Despite different statistical measures, both point to the same conclusion: revenue this quarter significantly exceeded expectations.

The company's diluted loss per share for the second quarter was $0.09, better than the market expectation of a $0.24 loss per share.

The combined operating loss of the three business segments was $143 million, significantly better than the $1.73 billion market expectation used by Bernstein.

Primarily due to the narrowing loss in the AI business and higher-than-expected profitability in Connectivity.

Looking at the business segments, the most stable remains the Connectivity business centered around Starlink.

At the end of the second quarter, Starlink had 12 million users, an increase of 1.7 million from the first quarter, with average monthly revenue per user remaining at $66.

Connectivity generated quarterly revenue of $4.291 billion and an operating profit of $1.656 billion, resulting in an operating margin of approximately 38.6%.

Higher than Bernstein's market expectation of 37%.

It is also the only business unit of SpaceX currently generating operational profits, providing critical support for the company’s continued investments in AI and Starship.

Space completed 38 launches in the second quarter, including 10 for customers and 28 for internal purposes.

Mass to Orbit (MTO) reached 485 tons.

This segment generated $962 million in revenue, exceeding the market expectation of $874 million,

However, due to increased R&D investment in Starship, the operating loss still reached $542 million.

The AI business has the highest revenue elasticity and capital requirements simultaneously. By the end of the second quarter, SpaceX's nominal computing capacity reached 1.4 GW, up from 1.0 GW in the first quarter.

Expected to exceed 2 GW by the end of 2026. The AI segment generated revenue of $2.561 billion this quarter, a 247% year-over-year increase.

AI solutions and infrastructure revenue reached $2.194 billion.

The operating loss for the AI business was $1.257 billion, representing an operating margin of approximately -49.1%, but it showed a significant narrowing compared to the $2.469 billion operating loss in the first quarter;

Adjusted EBITDA for the segment shifted from a loss of $609 million in Q1 to a profit of $1.146 billion.

Meanwhile, AI business capital expenditures for the second quarter reached $15.828 billion, higher than the $7.723 billion in the first quarter.

SpaceX's total capital expenditure in the second quarter reached $18.369 billion; whether this massive investment can be converted into sustained revenue and cash returns remains one of the market's top concerns.

SpaceX's Q2 performance by business segment. Connectivity generated the primary profit, and AI business capital expenditures reached $15.828 billion.

Source: Bernstein

AI computing opens up revenue opportunities; trillions in revenue cannot rely solely on satellite internet.

The most notable change in this earnings call is that Musk moved the target year for achieving $1 trillion in annual revenue from 2031 to 2030.

and indicated that it could be achieved as early as 2029. Management also projected an annualized revenue run rate of at least $100 billion.

However, this Bernstein research summary does not specify the corresponding time point.

To reach this goal, SpaceX clearly cannot rely solely on Starlink user growth.

Connectivity needs to continue expanding among individual, enterprise, and government clients; AI services need to convert massive computing capacity into long-term contracts and stable revenue.

Starship needs to reduce the costs of satellite deployment and orbital data center construction, with AI computing prices being the most sensitive variable.

Musk said the cost of computing services could remain at $30 to $50 per watt,

And this assessment is consistent with the pricing of agreements reached with SpaceX, Anthropic, and Google.

In contrast, Bernstein's current model still assumes that the computing price will eventually decline to approximately $10 per watt.

This means that $30 to $50 per watt is not the base assumption underlying Bernstein’s $239 target price, but rather a potential upside scenario.

If SpaceX can maintain higher prices while expanding its computing capacity, its future revenue and EBITDA could significantly exceed Bernstein's current forecasts.

However, it remains uncertain whether this price range can be sustained long-term. The terms and cancellation clauses of customer contracts, as well as supply and demand in the AI computing power market,

Supply constraints in semiconductors and expansion by competitors may both impact the actual transaction price.

The capacity expansion target is equally aggressive. By the end of the second quarter, SpaceX's nominal computing capacity was 1.4 GW,

The company expects to exceed 2 GW by the end of 2026, approach 10 GW by the end of 2027, and move toward 20 GW in 2028.

If this pace materializes, SpaceX's business structure will extend beyond rocket launches and satellite internet to include large-scale AI infrastructure.

Key financial and valuation forecasts. Bernstein expects SpaceX's revenue to be $18.674 billion, $40.236 billion, and $84.990 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with the EV/adjusted EBITDA multiple declining from 245.7x to 37.2x.

The prerequisite for high-frequency launches is the full reusability of Starship.

In SpaceX's valuation framework, Connectivity answers the question: "Is there a current profit base?"

AI calculates how fast revenue can grow, while Starship answers whether the long-term scale can be achieved at a sufficiently low cost.

If SpaceX is to approach $1 trillion in annual revenue around 2030, growth in Starlink users alone will not be sufficient.

The launch frequency, payload capacity, and degree of full reusability of Starship will directly impact the deployment of the next-generation Starlink satellites,

Costs of building the orbital data center and expanding other space operations.

The management team still set very aggressive timeline targets. The company plans to continue advancing Starship orbital flights and V3 satellite deployments,

And attempt more complex primary and secondary recovery maneuvers. Its long-term goal is to approach one launch per day by the end of 2027.

And operate five launch sites, two located in Texas and three in Florida.

To achieve this frequency, SpaceX must not only reuse the booster but also solve the recovery of the Starship second stage.

Bernstein believes that a durable heat shield is key to full reusability at the second stage.

Elon Musk said the 13th flight may have resolved the heat shield issue, but the analysis is not yet complete and further flights are needed for validation.

Regulatory approvals, launch pad construction, flight accidents, and review cycles may also affect the speed at which Starship transitions from high-frequency testing to industrialized operations.

Therefore, full reusability remains the most important and also the most uncertain component of the Bernstein valuation model.

The $239 price target depends on the simultaneous realization of three key themes.

Bernstein based its analysis on SpaceX's EBITDA for each business segment in 2031,

Calculate the enterprise value for 2030 using the sum-of-the-parts valuation method and forward EV/EBITDA multiples, then discount each segment's valuation to mid-2027.

Obtain a 12-month target price of $239. A late-stage venture capital discount rate of 25% is applied to Connectivity and 35% to AI.

Notably, the Bernstein model projects SpaceX's revenue for 2031 at $554 billion,

Significantly below the $1 trillion target proposed by management. Its long-term calculated price also still assumes a decline to approximately $10 per watt,

rather than the $30 to $50 per watt proposed by Musk.

Therefore, the $239 price target does not require SpaceX to fully realize management’s entire vision, but still incorporates strong assumptions about business expansion.

It requires three key components to be realized together: Connectivity profits continue to grow, AI computing transitions from high capital expenditure to scalable revenue,

Starship has successfully completed its fully reusable verification as planned.

After SpaceX's IPO, its stock price declined significantly, but Bernstein still maintains a $239 price target and an Outperform rating. Source: Bernstein

This also explains why, despite SpaceX's second-quarter revenue and earnings per share both exceeding expectations, its stock price fell sharply after the earnings release.

Quarterly performance only demonstrates that current growth remains strong and does not directly alleviate market concerns about the return on AI investment,

Concerns over stock lock-up releases and Starship execution risks.

If AI-calculated prices can remain between $30 and $50 per watt for an extended period, Starship's full reusability can proceed as planned.

Starlink's individual and enterprise customers continue to grow, and Bernstein's current model still has room for upward revision.

Conversely, if hash power contracts fail to materialize, semiconductor supply falls short, or Starship progress lags behind expectations,

The $239 target price will also face pressure.

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