SpaceX Q2 revenue surges 92% to $7.8B, stock volatile amid AI spending concerns

Original ｜ Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author | Golem (@web3_golem)

On August 4, SpaceX released its Q2 2026 financial results, which overall exceeded expectations.

The financial report shows that SpaceX's Q2 2026 revenue reached $7.814 billion, a 92% year-over-year increase and above the market expectation of approximately $6.8 billion. Revenue from connectivity services, primarily Starlink, remained the largest contributor at $4.291 billion, up 66% year-over-year and 32% quarter-over-quarter. AI-related revenue surged this quarter, reaching $2.561 billion—a massive 247% year-over-year increase and a 213% quarter-over-quarter rise. Space services also grew 29% year-over-year, generating $962 million in revenue.

SpaceX still reported a net loss of $541 million for the quarter, but this was within market expectations and significantly narrower than the $1.008 billion loss in the same period last year, translating to an estimated loss of $0.09 per share—better than the market expectation of a $0.23 to $0.24 loss per share. Although AI and space operations remain unprofitable, posting losses of $1.257 billion and $542 million respectively, which offset Starlink’s $1.656 billion in profits, both figures were narrower than market expectations and the previous quarter’s losses.

This quarter's financial report, as SpaceX's first since going public, shows commendable revenue and outlook.

Ironically, SpaceX's stock experienced a rollercoaster ride after the earnings report. On August 4, after the U.S. market opened, SpaceX's stock rose steadily, closing at $125.33, up 9.43%; however, after hours, SpaceX's stock turned downward and has since declined by 7.5%, trading around $116, effectively erasing all intraday gains.

It’s not unreasonable for the market to be harsh on SpaceX; two main factors have weighed on its stock price. First, at the macro level, investor focus on AI companies has shifted from revenue growth to concerns about when massive AI capital expenditures will translate into tangible returns. Second, at the micro level, the upcoming release of approximately 910 million restricted shares on August 6 will create selling pressure in the market.

According to the financial report, AI has become SpaceX's second-largest revenue source, after its connectivity business led by Starlink. This is excellent news for SpaceX, which has long positioned its AI business as a core component of its valuation; however, behind the rapid growth lies substantial capital expenditure.

SpaceX's total capital expenditure for Q2 2026 was approximately $18.369 billion, with AI business capital spending accounting for $15.828 billion, or over 86%. This AI capital expenditure not only increased by 104% compared to the previous quarter but also equals six times the AI business revenue and twice the total revenue ($7.814 billion) for the quarter.

SpaceX AI business operations and financial data

Where did the AI giant's massive capital expenditures go?

According to SpaceX CFO Bret Johnsen during the earnings call, over $15.8 billion in AI spending is primarily directed toward building AI computing infrastructure. By the end of the second quarter, SpaceX’s total power load for computing capacity had expanded to 1.4 GW, up from 1 GW in the first quarter and 0.4 GW a year ago; SpaceX expects to reach 2 GW by the end of this year. Additionally, Musk added that by the end of 2027, SpaceX’s actual computing capacity will approach 10 GW, rather than the previously anticipated 5 GW.

At the same time, Johnson stated that AI capital expenditures will not see significant reductions over the next two quarters, but he also emphasized that the current economic efficiency allows SpaceX to recoup its capital investment in AI computing in less than a year. To further alleviate market investors’ concerns about the return timeline for SpaceX’s AI capital spending, Johnson cited the recently signed $6.7 billion cloud services contract during the earnings call, noting that SpaceX will achieve $100 billion in annual recurring revenue (ARR) by the end of this year.

Elon Musk, ever the bold visionary, added further fuel to the fire by stating, “This goal is not out of reach—even if we do nothing, we can still achieve it, and I believe the actual number could be even higher.” Musk also revealed that SpaceX has internally moved its revenue forecast of $1 trillion (note: revenue, not ARR) from 2031 to 2030.

To put $1 trillion in annual revenue into perspective, no company in the world has yet achieved this milestone. Even Jensen Huang, the “godfather of GPUs,” stated at NVIDIA’s GTC conference in March 2026 that NVIDIA aims to reach $1 trillion in cumulative revenue by 2027—making Musk’s claim even bolder by comparison.

Of SpaceX's AI business revenue of $2.561 billion, $2.194 billion came from "AI solutions and infrastructure," while advertising revenue amounted to only $367 million. Undoubtedly, this revenue growth was driven by massive AI capital expenditures; however, the surge in AI revenue has not kept pace with the capital speed required to expand SpaceX's AI infrastructure, nor has it changed the fact that the AI business still relies on Starlink for financial support.

Overall market concerns over massive AI capital expenditures have weighed on SpaceX

For SpaceX itself, this isn't really a major issue. As a long-term, high-growth technology company, significant upfront capital investment is necessary. Moreover, having just completed its IPO, SpaceX holds $100 billion in cash equivalents and $47.5 billion in unfilled orders, giving it the financial strength to afford such spending.

But SpaceX's misstep was timing it right during a period of poor market sentiment. On a macro level, nearly all AI tech companies are expanding their AI infrastructure investments, but the market's patience for when these massive expenditures will translate into tangible returns is rapidly wearing thin—even Elon Musk, the "Iron Man of Silicon Valley," cannot soothe investor anxiety.

Last week, U.S. equities entered the Q2 earnings season, with Google, Intel, Meta, and others reporting significant revenue growth but experiencing sharp stock declines—all of which shared increased AI capital expenditures; in contrast, Microsoft’s reduction in its full-year capital spending led to its best single-day stock performance in 18 years. （Related reading:When Markets Question AI Capital Spending: A Full Analysis of Q2 Earnings from Five Tech Giants）

Under a capsized nest, no egg remains intact. With the broader market questioning AI capital expenditures, how can SpaceX, which allocates 86% of its capital spending to AI and still operates at a loss in its actual AI business, carve out an independent performance?

The AI capital expenditure black hole is an objective fact about SpaceX; the key lies in how investors view it—some are concerned, while others are optimistic.

Morgan Stanley maintains its $300 target price for SpaceX, primarily based on its bet on the future value of its AI business. The $300 target price is broken down as follows: $8 for the space business, $128 for Starlink, $12 for X and Grok, and $152 for enterprise AI. Excluding AI value, SpaceX’s rocket launch and Starlink businesses alone are sufficient to support its current stock price; therefore, with AI included, SpaceX is currently trading at a discount.

At the macro level, investor sentiment toward SpaceX's AI capital expenditures remains mixed, while at the micro level, investors are largely bearish on the August 6 release of SpaceX's initial early stock lock-up, contributing to downward pressure on SpaceX's stock price following the earnings report.

On August 6 (this Thursday), approximately 910 million insider shares from SpaceX will be unlocked and enter the market, far exceeding the current public float of only 640 million shares. After this unlock, the supply of shares in the market will increase significantly, and the general consensus is that current buying demand is insufficient to absorb such a large volume of selling.

According to OptionCharts data, the current put-call ratio for SPCX is 0.97, indicating neutral investor sentiment. However, examining the specific contract distribution for the August 7 expiration reveals that SPCX’s psychological and technical support level has shifted down to $100, where 24,947 puts have accumulated—the largest open interest at-the-money strike at this time.

Once breached, a downward breakout could trigger a negative gamma effect, and SPCX could very likely drop below $90.

The current long-short battleground remains concentrated around the $110–$115 strike prices. Considering two scenarios: if the market has already priced in the downside from the stock lock-up expiration, SPCX is also likely to briefly dip on August 6 before rebounding, remaining within this price range; if the market has not fully priced in the downside from the stock lock-up expiration, SPCX is very likely to continue downward breakout, as previously described.

After the positive sentiment from the better-than-expected earnings report was quickly absorbed during yesterday’s U.S. trading session, it’s difficult to anticipate any near-term catalysts from SpaceX that could boost the stock price. This doesn’t mean SpaceX is necessarily overvalued in the long term—SPCX is down 17% from its $135 IPO price—but if you’re considering buying, it’s best to wait until at least the first wave of share lock-ups expires.