SpaceX and AMD post-earnings declines reveal shifting expectations in the AI market

Last night, the U.S. stock market experienced a long-awaited broad rally.

However, after-hours market sentiment was quickly pulled back into a tense state by two major earnings reports—SpaceX and AMD released their latest quarterly results almost simultaneously. While the numbers themselves each had their own highlights, the market’s reaction was surprisingly uniform: both stocks declined.

SpaceX fell over 7% after hours; AMD fell over 9% after hours. Both beat revenue expectations, and guidance wasn’t poor—so why are investors still voting with their feet?

The answer stems from the same reason—the market's baseline for the AI narrative has been raised to an almost苛刻 level.

SpaceX has delivered its first quarterly earnings report since going public.

Revenue of $7.8 billion exceeded market expectations. As a debut performance, this figure is impressive on its own. However, the issue lies in capital expenditures.

The financial report shows that SpaceX's capital expenditures for the second quarter reached $18.369 billion, with approximately $16 billion allocated to building AI computing infrastructure. This figure significantly exceeds analysts' previous expectation of $13.2 billion.

$16 billion, nearly equivalent to SpaceX’s total revenue over two quarters. In other words, for every dollar the company earns, it spends more than two dollars on AI infrastructure.

Market concerns over this "burn rate" are directly reflected in the stock price. Although Musk maintained his highly aggressive long-term vision during the earnings call—accelerating the company’s $1 trillion annual revenue target from 2031 to 2030—these long-term narratives clearly have not alleviated investors’ concerns about short-term cash returns.

Musk also emphasized that the market has significantly underestimated Starlink’s potential. He stated that within less than a decade, Starlink is expected to provide major internet services globally in most countries where it is permitted to operate. SpaceX’s long-term growth trajectory is anchored on three pillars: the expansion of Starlink, the commercialization of Starship, and the return on investment in AI infrastructure.

But a harsh reality is that if capital investment cannot quickly translate into measurable revenue growth, the trillion-dollar revenue target remains merely a number on paper.

What further unsettles the market is that, following the earnings report, the company will face the release of 910 million shares—exceeding the current free float. Such a massive release of shares will almost certainly exert significant downward pressure on the stock price.

In short, SpaceX is in a precarious position: its long-term narrative is compelling, but it’s burning through cash too quickly in the short term, with a poorly structured capital stack. It possesses nearly all the ingredients of a great company, but at this moment, it still falls short of being an ideal investment.

AMD's earnings report, on paper, is nearly perfect.

Data center business revenue reached $6.72 billion, up 107% year-over-year and approximately 15.6% sequentially, serving as the core driver of overall performance. Total revenue amounted to $11.54 billion, up 50% year-over-year and hitting a record high, exceeding the market expectation of $11.28 billion. Adjusted earnings per share came in at $1.66, surpassing analysts’ expectations of $1.62.

Guidance was equally positive: Revenue for the third quarter is expected to be approximately $13 billion, above the market expectation of $12.52 billion; adjusted gross margin is approximately 56%.

On the AI business front, AMD is accelerating its challenge to NVIDIA’s dominance. CEO Lisa Su announced that the second-generation Helios AI servers, equipped with MI455X accelerators and TSMC’s “Venice” processors, have entered full-scale production and are expected to begin shipping in the coming months. AMD is reportedly set to start delivering these AI servers to Meta and OpenAI by the end of this quarter.

Almost all numbers indicate a highly favorable situation, but the after-hours stock price plummeted by more than 9%.

Why? Because AMD's stock has already doubled this year, pushing its market valuation to an extreme premium—its DCF fair value is only around $130, while the actual stock price stands at $400 to $500. Under this valuation structure, "beating expectations" has become the bare minimum. Investors now demand "even better than expected"—higher AI business growth rates, stronger guidance, and more aggressive long-term targets.

When market expectations for a company are raised to their peak, even "good" earnings reports may be punished for being "not good enough."

The after-hours movements of SpaceX and AMD jointly reveal a market paradigm shift currently underway.

AI remains the hottest trading narrative in U.S. equities, but the barrier to participating in AI has risen significantly. In the past, simply mentioning AI in earnings reports or showing increased capex was enough to boost stock prices. Now, the market demands a more comprehensive logic:

• Don’t blindly spend money—capital expenditures must have a clear path to return, unlike SpaceX, which spends twice its revenue.
• Primary income must not be affected—AI investments cannot come at the cost of core business profitability.
• Future expectations must be extremely high—guidance, growth rates, and market share targets cannot be set too low.

All three criteria must be met to qualify for market rewards. Missing any one of them may lead to a situation where "good news is exhausted, turning into bad news."

When the benchmarks for evaluating earnings reports are pushed to such extreme heights, the behavioral patterns of U.S. stocks are also undergoing subtle changes.

Any positive news is likely to trigger an extreme spike—because capital is heavily concentrated in the AI narrative, with extremely high density of directional bets; once a truly unexpected message emerges, buying pressure will rush in rapidly.

But even a slight expectation gap can trigger a sharp reversal—again, due to overcrowding, any disappointment is amplified into panic selling. The after-hours movements of SpaceX and AMD are classic examples of this "high expectations + low tolerance for error" environment.

This price behavior is increasingly resembling the volatility patterns of crypto meme coins—driven not by fundamentals, but by sentiment and expectations. In this environment, managing risk has never been more important.

Currently, BIT Broker has launched the options buying feature, enabling investors to insure their holdings and strictly cap downside risk, allowing them to navigate frequent large price fluctuations with confidence.

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