Since February 2025, job postings for software development roles in the United States have been rising, coinciding with Anthropic’s launch of Claude Code. Even as overall job postings decline, this trend continues, making predictions that “AI will quickly eliminate demand for developers” more complex.
Concerns about the career prospects of software development are not unfounded, and they have intensified as companies adopt AI-powered coding tools, especially as these tools continue to grow more powerful. As early as 2023, Microsoft’s software development platform GitHub stated that in projects where AI was available, it had already written nearly half of the code.
Some AI experts claim that AI-generated code now accounts for more than half of all code on the GitHub platform. GitHub has not confirmed this claim, but the company stated in October that one in every three "pull requests" now involves an AI agent. A pull request refers to the process by which developers propose changes to code in collaborative development. Last year, GitHub said this proportion was less than one in ten. GitHub wrote: “If this trend continues, most code pushed to GitHub within the next two years could be written by agents—much of which may never be fully read by humans.”
Labor market researchers say that, against this backdrop, this profession is evolving rather than disappearing. Data from Indeed Hiring Lab shows that since February 2025, job postings for software development roles in the U.S. have risen by nearly 15%, outperforming the overall job market and coding trends.
Some economics experts view the rebound in software job hiring as evidence supporting a “pessimistic yet optimistic” perspective on AI and the job market. Eric Kutcher, Chairman of McKinsey North America, said in a recent interview on CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street”: “Not long ago, we were seeing headlines claiming that software developers would no longer be in demand.” He noted that today, companies are producing more code than ever before, and software developers who collaborate with AI remain in short supply. “The growth we’re seeing is occurring most notably in the areas where we originally expected the greatest substitution effects,” Kutcher said.
McKinsey Global Institute’s latest research on AI and the future of work indicates that the previous decline in software development was not entirely an AI story. Although AI has been automating software development tasks in recent years, this rebound followed a sharp downturn after the 2022 hiring peak, when tech companies began downsizing after aggressively hiring during the pandemic.
However, even after recovery, Indeed Hiring Lab data shows that software development job postings remain approximately 27.5% below pre-pandemic levels. Notably, growth has been concentrated primarily in senior roles and more experienced AI-related positions. Indeed Hiring Lab found that 71% of the growth between May 2025 and May 2026 came from senior roles, while positions mentioning AI in their job titles accounted for 37% of the growth.
AI tools may enable companies to produce code faster than developers working alone. GitHub executives have previously stated that, in the end, up to 80% of code—or even more—could be written by AI, especially as developers become increasingly accustomed to collaborating with AI tools. However, this could also mean that demand will focus on employees who can evaluate AI-generated code or issues and integrate new tools into their company’s broader technology systems.
Sneha Puri, an economist at Indeed Hiring Lab, says companies are recognizing that even though AI can handle certain technical coding tasks, they still need developers to oversee this work, refine products, and help customers integrate the technology into their daily operations. She notes that there is growing demand for employees who can help businesses apply AI tools to scenarios “beyond building.”
Early gains in the AI era may not be sustainable, and young employees still face risks.
Currently, the factors Puri mentioned are helping software developers become one of the early beneficiaries of the AI transition in the labor market. A recent analysis by economist Steve Rattner of U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data found that, between May 2023 and May 2025, software developers were among the occupations with positive employment growth, though their growth rate was only in line with the overall growth across all occupations and far below the growth rate of traditional blue-collar jobs related to building AI data centers.
Anthropic researchers found that even with automation, humans still need to oversee these automated processes and require user input. However, the researchers cautioned that "it is by no means certain that this model will persist in the future."
In its report on pull requests, GitHub stated that as AI pushes more code into the world, it also introduces greater code risks, and humans must be able to scale alongside the technology to oversee AI’s work. But this may not always be possible. GitHub wrote: “As the volume of code grows, we must prevent more vulnerabilities from being exposed and reduce the human effort required to address the remaining ones, or the number of introduced vulnerabilities will become unsustainable.”
For the youngest workers, the outlook in software development remains uncertain. The Stanford University 2026 AI Index shows that since the rise of generative AI, employment among 22- to 25-year-olds in AI-exposed industries has declined by 16%; among those identified as junior software developers, the decline was even greater at 20%, while positions for older developers are expanding.
This change has made it more difficult for recent graduates to enter the software development industry, even as demand for more experienced employees continues to rise. Puri says students should become familiar with AI tools but not overlook skills that remain essential when collaborating with them. “Being able to use AI at work to increase efficiency is a great starting point,” Puri said. “But communication, interpersonal skills, and leadership are also critically important,” she added.
Puri also said employers have a responsibility to maintain pipelines for industry talent. “Today’s entry-level talent are tomorrow’s seasoned experts,” she said. “If employers don’t build these talent pipelines now, they won’t have the experienced professionals they need in ten years.”
Although predicting job growth in the AI era is challenging, a report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics in August indicates that the long-term outlook for software developers remains positive. The agency projects that employment for software developers will increase by 10% between 2025 and 2035, rising from approximately 1.72 million to 1.89 million, adding about 174,700 new positions.