BlockBeats news, on September 9, Société Générale stated that the 2026 gold bull market is transitioning from a previously speculation-driven rally to a new phase characterized by synchronized demand from physical, futures, and options markets, with signs emerging that different types of capital are simultaneously building positions.
According to data from Société Générale, gold ETFs recorded net inflows of 201 tons in August, marking the third-largest monthly inflow on record, behind only February 2009 and March 2020. Meanwhile, the notional exposure of asset managers’ net long positions in gold futures rose to the second-highest level in history, just below the level seen in January this year when gold prices surpassed $5,400 per ounce.
The options market is also sending bullish signals. Investors are hedging against short-term risks using put options while continuously building long-term call option exposure, indicating that although the market remains attentive to short-term volatility, it remains optimistic about gold’s medium- to long-term outlook.
Société Générale believes that sustained central bank gold buying, de-dollarization, geopolitical risks, and concerns over sovereign debt are raising the floor for gold prices and weakening the traditional dampening effect of high real interest rates on gold. As gold volatility declines, gold is becoming more attractive to long-term reserve managers.
Regarding Federal Reserve policy, Société Générale believes that market expectations for further rate hikes have largely been priced in, and the downside risk for gold is gradually narrowing. The bank maintains a "strategic bullish" stance on gold, noting that ongoing inflationary pressures, U.S. tariffs, AI and infrastructure investment, and high fiscal deficits may still provide support for gold prices.