ChainThink reports that on September 7, Serenity posted that they are optimistic about the growth potential for laser manufacturers driven by AI computing demand, noting that previous revenue projections based on Sivers (SIVE)'s annual target of 100 million CW DFB lasers were merely illustrative models;
Such companies can further expand into other segments of data center optical communications. For example, after acquiring Cloud Light (pluggable optical modules), Lumentum (LITE) increased its potential service market within data centers by more than five times.
The OFC presentation materials show that the ELS business based on UHP laser chips presents an opportunity for approximately 2x TAM expansion.
Serenity also stated that, after ramping up production, the laser business of a single UHP laser wafer fab could generate annual revenue of approximately $5 billion;
Considering the gross margin of CPO lasers mentioned by AAOI of approximately 55%-65%, lasers demonstrate strong profitability, and even with industry expansion, a supply-demand gap may still persist.
As NPO, CPO, and 1.6T pluggable optical modules overlap in their adoption cycles, laser manufacturers are poised to continuously enter new markets and may command higher valuation premiums compared to companies that remain entrenched in a single supply chain tier.