Summary: Momentum for a weekend Senate vote on the CLARITY Act stalled Thursday after Senate leaders took no procedural steps to advance the crypto market-structure bill, making a quick floor vote increasingly unlikely despite ongoing negotiations between parties and the White House. What happened - Senate Majority Leader John Thune did not file cloture on a motion to proceed to the CLARITY Act, leaving the bill without the procedural countdown required to limit debate and push it to an initial vote. - Instead, Thune filed cloture on a substitute amendment to H.R. 6500 (the continuing-resolution vehicle), the motion to proceed to S. 4668 (the Protect College Sports Act of 2026), and the nomination of Todd Blanche for attorney general. The CLARITY Act was not on that list. - The chamber reconvened Thursday at 10:00 a.m. to resume consideration of nominations under Senate Resolution 817; roll-call votes were expected but not yet scheduled. Why this matters - Without a cloture filing, leaders cannot start the standard process to limit debate and move the CLARITY Act to the floor, making a weekend vote improbable even if senators stay beyond Friday. - The Senate needs 60 votes to invoke cloture. Republicans lack the votes to reach that threshold without bipartisan Democratic support, so leadership is unlikely to schedule the measure until a bipartisan deal is in hand. - Even with agreement on language, the bill must compete with funding legislation, nominations and other measures already queued in the Senate. Where negotiations stand - Lawmakers from both parties and the White House continue to negotiate unresolved provisions. Sen. Thom Tillis said administration officials have begun reviewing parts of the bill’s language. - Key sticking points include ethics restrictions on senior federal officials, illicit-finance safeguards, decentralized finance (DeFi) provisions, stablecoin reward rules and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s authority. - Negotiators have worked on the measure for nearly 11 months. Sen. Cynthia Lummis has pushed for a vote before the August recess and said senators might remain in Washington through the weekend, but her comments reflected expectation rather than a confirmed procedural filing by leadership. - Lummis has been particularly focused on the CFTC-related language, arguing that clearer federal oversight is necessary to prevent crypto firms from shifting operations overseas. Market sentiment and chances of passage - Prediction markets have turned bearish on passage this year. Polymarket put the probability of the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 at roughly 17% on Thursday — down about 48% over the period shown in the chart — after peaking above 70% earlier in the year. The contract has seen more than $5 million in cumulative volume. - The Polymarket “Yes” contract resolves only if H.R. 3633 passes both chambers and is signed by the president by Dec. 31. Bottom line A bipartisan agreement could still revive the bill after the August recess, but the Senate would need to complete multiple procedural steps, vote on amendments and approve the final text. Any changes to the House-passed version could also force additional action in the House before the CLARITY Act could reach the president’s desk — leaving the timeline for federal crypto clarity uncertain for now.
Senate Fails to File Cloture on CLARITY Act, Floor Vote Unlikely
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Summary
Citing ChainGPT, risk-on assets saw limited movement after the Senate failed to file cloture on the CLARITY Act on Thursday, delaying a weekend vote. Senate Majority Leader John Thune shifted focus to other motions, stalling the crypto bill. Without bipartisan backing, a vote remains unlikely. Ongoing talks include CFT (Countering the Financing of Terrorism), DeFi, and CFTC authority. Prediction markets now put the bill’s chances at 17% by year-end.
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