Key Insights:
- SEC chair anticipates Clarity Act to pass on September 15 when it comes up for the Senate cloture vote.
- Optimism about the legislation’s potential success is thinning.
- The SEC and the CFTC are focusing on rulemaking for the crypto industry as a contingency plan in the event of the Clarity Act’s failure.
Crypto regulation faces a critical Senate test on Sept. 15 as lawmakers prepare for a procedural vote on the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act.
SEC Chair Paul Atkins told FOX Business that he anticipates and hopes the bill will eventually clear the Senate and reach President Donald Trump’s desk. However, the scheduled Sept. 15 vote is a cloture vote on the motion to proceed, not a final vote on passage.
Market expectations remain substantially less optimistic than Atkins’ public stance. Polymarket traders currently price the probability of the CLARITY Act becoming law before the end of 2026 at roughly 14%–15%.
Optimism Around Clarity Act Passage in Cloture Vote Thins
Interestingly, Atkins’ optimism about the Senate passage of the Clarity Act is an exception compared to the sentiment among industry insiders. With the bill failing to get a cloture vote before the August recess, some now believe it has missed its window.
Polymarket odds for the Clarity Act’s passage in 2026 are now at 15%, the lowest level since the market’s creation. Stakeholders have warned that the outcome of the midterm election could end any chance of the legislation passing.
Still, the September 15 cloture vote remains a much-anticipated event as the outcome will determine the direction of the legislative push. The Clarity Act requires 60 votes to pass, so bipartisan support is necessary.
So far, there are no signs that bipartisan support has been achieved. There is no update yet on whether the major issue, which is on ethics provisions, has been resolved to the satisfaction of all stakeholders.
However, reports confirm that there are still discussions ongoing on how to reach a compromise on the key issues before the day of cloture.
US Regulators Continue with Rulemaking While Clarity Act Hangs in Balance
Meanwhile, US regulators have turned their attention to rulemaking, seemingly as a contingency plan for the Clarity Act’s failure. Beyond the Regulation of Crypto Assets, the SEC recently introduced a new proposal to modernize rules for registered transfer agents.
According to crypto journalist Eleanor Terret, the proposed rule will allow transfer agents to use blockchain technology for official records. It also includes reporting requirements for tokenized securities.
Crypto groups have also increased their calls on regulators to issue guidance on innovative products. The Crypto Council on Innovation (CCI) recently called on the SEC to issue rules to regulate non-conventional exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
Interestingly, a bipartisan group of former regulators also called on the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to properly regulate the derivatives market so as to bring markets onshore.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute legal, financial, or investment advice.
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