Saylor: BIP-110 Fails to Reach 55% Miner Support, Mandatory Window Risks Chain Split

Big-picture: Michael Saylor says Bitcoin Improvement Proposal BIP-110 can no longer reach the 55% voluntary miner threshold in the current difficulty period, based on on-chain signaling counts — but the soft fork could still lock in through its mandatory signaling window, raising fresh concerns about network coordination and how signaling is being coordinated. What Saylor found - In an Aug. 1 analysis, Strategy Executive Chairman Michael Saylor reported that at block 960,561 there were 24 BIP-110 signaling blocks out of 946 (2.54%). By 11:13 UTC on Aug. 2 a public monitor showed 28 signals in 1,108 blocks (2.53%). - Saylor calculated that the proposal needs 1,109 signaling blocks within a 2,016-block difficulty period to meet the voluntary 55% threshold. With the remaining blocks in the current period, even if every one signaled, the tally could reach only about 936 — making the 55% target “mathematically unreachable” this period. He summarized the situation as “not miner consensus.” Pool attribution and the caveat - Saylor also reported that every detected signal came from miners using DATUM and sharing rewards via the OCEAN pool, and that there were no signals observed outside that system. The public monitor’s counts support his arithmetic but do not independently prove his attribution beyond the specific blocks he examined. - BIP-110’s installation guide points users to Bitcoin Knots and includes instructions for directing rented hashpower at a DATUM node. OCEAN’s documentation explains that miners create block templates through their own nodes while the pool coordinates reward splits. Those documents confirm a technical relationship but do not themselves prove intent or promotional motives. What BIP-110 would do - Formally titled the Reduced Data Temporary Softfork, BIP-110 proposes seven temporary consensus restrictions meant to limit arbitrary data in blocks. Key measures include: - Most new output scripts limited to 34 bytes - OP_RETURN outputs capped at 83 bytes - Certain data pushes restricted to 256 bytes - Temporary limits to several Taproot features - Outputs created before activation would be exempt. Supporters say a one-year rule set would protect Bitcoin’s monetary focus; critics, including Saylor and Blockstream co-founder Adam Back, argue consensus rules shouldn’t be used to decide which currently valid transaction structures get block space. Saylor and Back instead point to fee markets and node policy choices as safer levers for handling disputed data use. Timing, mandatory signaling and risk of split - The current voluntary period ends at block 961,631. From block 961,632 through 963,647 BIP-110’s enforcement code is designed to reject any block that does not set bit 4 (the mandatory signaling window). If the software rule sees 100% signaling during that mandatory window, Saylor cautioned, it would reflect the enforcement rule rather than a new voluntary vote of support. - If the mandatory window produces lock-in and activation (lock at 963,648, activation at 965,664 for 52,416 blocks), nodes enforcing BIP-110 could end up following a minority chain if most hashpower continues mining non-signaling blocks. Saylor and Back have warned that enforcing the proposal without broad, voluntary agreement risks dividing the network. - Foundry USA Pool has separately asked its mining customers whether the pool should signal; its vote was scheduled to close near block 961,632, but no verified result was public as of Aug. 2. Bottom line Voluntary miner support for BIP-110 is currently very low and, according to Saylor’s on-chain counts, cannot reach the 55% voluntary threshold in this difficulty period. The proposal still has a path to lock-in via its mandatory signaling window, which is what makes the coming days critical: major pools, exchanges, wallets and node operators deciding how they behave in that window will determine whether BIP-110 is accepted smoothly or sparks a contentious network split.