The return on investment for integrating the digital ruble will be lengthy, especially for small financial institutions, writes Kommersant.
Analysts at the NRA identified the decline in acquiring transactions as the primary factor reducing bankers' revenues. Digital ruble transactions will occur on the Central Bank of Russia’s platform, not through commercial banks. However, such a level of loss is likely only if the digital ruble captures at least 14% of the total non-cash payment volume. If achieved, given that Russian citizens hold 67 trillion rubles in bank accounts, annual outflows could amount to 1–1.5 trillion rubles. This would represent a significant blow to bank margins, according to the NRA.
The National Research Agency estimates the cost of implementing a central bank digital currency (CBDC) at 100–300 million rubles per bank. Analysts believe it will take years to recoup such investments: with a transaction fee of 0.1% on digital ruble transactions, a bank would need to process payments totaling 10 billion rubles.
Victor Dostov, head of the Association of Electronic Money Market Participants, believes that in the first two years, commission income losses will be minor due to low transaction volumes. However, if the government transitions budget and pension payments to the digital ruble, the consequences for bankers could become extremely painful.
NRA experts modeled three scenarios for the adoption of the digital ruble: conservative, baseline, and optimistic. Depending on the scenario, the share of CBDC in the money supply could range from 5% to 30% within five to seven years. The authors of the study consider the baseline scenario—15–24%—the most realistic. However, experts do not expect a significant increase in the popularity of the digital ruble over the next one to two years.
Analysts have noted China’s experience, where the digital yuan was launched earlier than Russia’s CBDC. Despite active stimulus measures, including the distribution of “helicopter money,” a significant share of transactions using the digital yuan has yet to be achieved.
Starting September 1, the 12 largest Russian banks are required to enable their customers to use the digital ruble, and major retail chains must accept it as payment. Sber’s Deputy Chairman of the Board and Chief Financial Officer, Taras Skvortsov, stated that there is currently no high demand for the digital ruble among Russians; it is of interest only to the Central Bank itself.