Robinhood’s Prediction Markets Hub, which lets users buy and sell binary event contracts on everything from Federal Reserve decisions to NFL player stats, has quietly become one of the platform’s most explosive growth engines since launching in March 2025.
By mid-2026, Robinhood had facilitated between 11 and 16 billion event contracts through the platform. Revenue from the segment hit $156 million in Q2 2026, putting it in the same weight class as the company’s crypto trading business.
How the contracts work
Each contract is a bet on whether something will happen: yes or no. If you’re right, the contract settles at $1. If you’re wrong, it settles at $0.
Prices fluctuate between $0.01 and $0.99, functioning as real-time probability gauges. A contract trading at $0.72 implies the market sees a 72% chance of that outcome occurring. These are CFTC-regulated financial derivatives.
The contract categories span elections, economic indicators, sports results, and Federal Reserve policy decisions.
Sports betting in a brokerage wrapper
In December 2025, the platform rolled out player-level contracts that let users make statistical predictions about individual professional football players. The company also introduced preset combo contracts, which bundle multiple outcomes into a single trade. Custom combos followed in January 2026, giving users the ability to build their own multi-leg positions.
Additional trading features include limit orders, round-the-clock access, and AI-driven tools branded as Robinhood Cortex.
Building the exchange, not just the app
Robinhood established the Rothera Exchange in early 2026, acquiring approximately 90% of MIAXdx through a joint venture with Susquehanna International Group. Rothera operates as a CFTC-licensed exchange, giving Robinhood vertical control over its prediction market offerings.
Reports surfaced in mid-2026 that Robinhood was in preliminary discussions with Crypto.com about integrating prediction market contracts. The talks centered on potentially adding Crypto.com’s existing prediction market offerings to Robinhood’s platform.
What this means for the competitive landscape
Robinhood’s contracts are currently accessible to eligible US users through Robinhood Derivatives accounts, though availability varies by state, with some jurisdictions like Maryland excluded.
The $156 million Q2 2026 revenue figure represents a product line that didn’t exist 15 months earlier, reaching parity with crypto trading revenue.