During nearly a decade in Congress, Representative Brian Fitzpatrick has positioned himself as a centrist Republican who operates above partisan politics and is willing to oppose President Donald Trump.
This strategy has enabled Fitzpatrick—who, according to his hometown newspaper, is one of the most moderate members of Congress—to win over swing voters and consistently outperform his party in a highly competitive district that voted for Joe Biden in 2020 and Kamala Harris in 2024. However, against the backdrop of nationwide Republican candidates being dragged down by Trump this year, Fitzpatrick is facing a strong challenge from Democrat Bob Harvie in Pennsylvania’s 1st Congressional District, testing whether his personal brand can still succeed amid unfavorable national political conditions.
Fitzpatrick told CNBC: "Brian Fitzpatrick is Brian Fitzpatrick. I am not Donald Trump, and I am not anyone else. Voters should see me that way."
He also said, "I'm not satisfied with [Trump]. I'm not satisfied with his tone. I believe he hasn't done his job well. I think leaders should unite the country and bring people together. He hasn't done that."
The contest between Fitzpatrick and Harvey takes place amid declining Trump approval ratings, ongoing war in Iran, and rising consumer prices. This race is one of more than 40 House seats considered competitive enough to flip in the November 3 election, which will determine control of Congress for the final two years of Trump’s term. Pennsylvania voters often reflect national trends, and because the state lies along the U.S. East Coast, Fitzpatrick’s district will draw particular attention as vote counts are released.
The Democratic Party is launching an offensive and investing funds in districts previously considered difficult to win—including Fitzpatrick’s district—potentially demonstrating that Democrats can succeed even in the most vulnerable seats.
However, Harvey remains an underdog to win. Earlier this month, Amy Walter’s Cook Political Report downgraded the race from “Likely R” to “Lean R,” shifting toward the Democrats. Erin Covey, who covers House races for the Cook Report, called Fitzpatrick the Democrats’ “white whale.”
As part of the Democratic Party’s final efforts to unseat Fitzpatrick, Harvey held a rally in Bucks County earlier this month alongside House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) and Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro.
After the rally, Jeffrey said to reporters: “This is an extremely important state. This federal state is a key swing state, and Bucks County is a crucial swing county. So this is a vital election.”
Fitzpatrick grew up largely in Bucks County, which makes up much of the district, was a former FBI agent, and succeeded his brother Michael in 2017. He is co-chair of the bipartisan Problem Solvers Caucus, and according to a recent analysis of his voting record by The Philadelphia Inquirer, he has opposed the White House and his own party’s position more times than any other Republican in the current Congress. The newspaper endorsed Harvey earlier this month.
In recent weeks, as the White House has adopted a more conciliatory tone toward Russia, Fitzpatrick has been among a bipartisan group of lawmakers publicly expressing disapproval. Last week, he led the introduction of a bill aimed at reversing Trump’s recent approval of U.S. purchases of Russian diesel. Meanwhile, following Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s statement that related services had been downgraded, he co-signed a bipartisan letter urging the Department of Defense to restore Ukraine’s access to satellite communications critical to its defense. The New York Times reported that Fitzpatrick also threatened to push for the dismissal of U.S. officials responsible for the delay.
Fitzpatrick is seeking his sixth term in the House, having easily fended off Democratic challengers for much of his career. Christopher Nicholas, a Republican consultant in Pennsylvania, said Fitzpatrick is “one of the most moderate members of the House.”
Covey of the Cook Report said: "If the Democrats can defeat him in this round, it will certainly be a big win night for the Democrats."
Harvey portrayed Fitzpatrick as Trump’s rubber stamp and questioned his claimed bipartisan image. Although Fitzpatrick was one of only two Republicans to vote against the final version of the GOP’s landmark 2025 tax and spending bill, he previously voted in favor of its earlier version in the House—the very version that sent the bill to the Senate and propelled it toward final passage. Fitzpatrick stated that he supported the bill’s initial draft but opposed the Medicaid cuts added later in the Senate.
Harvey also pointed to Fitzpatrick’s inconsistent record on tariffs. Fitzpatrick voted to overturn Trump’s tariffs on Canada, but also sided with most Republicans in procedural votes aimed at limiting Congress’s ability to challenge the president’s tariffs. He also voted in favor of the controversial, Trump-endorsed election bill, the “SAVE America Act,” which requires voters to present identification and proof of citizenship when registering to vote. He also supported a contentious Republican immigration proposal and Trump’s suggestion to rename the Gulf of Mexico the “Gulf of America.”
Harvey told CNBC: "People in our country are suffering because of our economic problems. The government has become completely disconnected from the people it is supposed to serve. Internationally, we have never been weaker or more isolated... and all of this is because of Donald Trump, and people like Brian Fitzpatrick, who simply let him run rampant."
Nevertheless, Fitzpatrick is still favored to win. But Brit Crampsie, a Democratic strategist in Pennsylvania, said that this time around, the Democrats have a stronger candidate in Harvey compared to previous election cycles.
Crampsey said, "Bob Harvey’s journey from teacher to local official has given him deep ties to this community, and he truly represents it. He understands Bucks County and is widely known."
In addition to Trump’s low approval ratings and voter concerns about the economy, Fitzpatrick and other Pennsylvania Republicans must also contend with Shapiro, one of the nation’s most popular governors, who tops the ballot. Recent polls indicate that Shapiro is expected to win re-election comfortably. Covey said that in Fitzpatrick’s district, Shapiro is also projected to win by a double-digit margin.
Pennsylvania also has three other closely contested races that could collectively determine control of the House. Two Republican incumbents—Ryan Mackenzie in the 7th District and Scott Perry in the 10th District—are seeking re-election in races rated as “Lean D.” The 8th District, represented by Republican Congressman Rob Bresnahan, is rated as a “toss-up” by the Cook Report.
However, Fitzpatrick noted that in 2022, he won nearly 55% of the vote in that district, and even if Shapiro had secured 59% of the vote in the same district, this, in his view, demonstrates that his voters are fully willing to split their ballots.
There have been few independent public polls on this district, but an internal survey commissioned by Harvey’s campaign team from Global Strategy Group found him tied with Fitzpatrick. A poll conducted in September by Public Opinion Strategies for the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) and Fitzpatrick’s campaign showed the incumbent leading by 9 percentage points. A poll released Sunday by The New York Times, The Philadelphia Inquirer, and Siena College showed Harvey narrowly leading Fitzpatrick 48% to 46%, still within the margin of error.
Recent external spending also indicates the intensity of this campaign.
According to AdImpact data, since early October, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) has committed over $1.5 million in television advertising in this district, and the House Democrats’ leading super PAC has added more than $7.5 million more. Previously, neither organization had purchased television ads in this district since 2020 prior to this election.
The Republican side is also investing to solidify Fitzpatrick’s advantage. According to AdImpact data, the Congressional Leadership Fund and the NRCC, the two main Republican super PACs in the House, have each pledged to spend just under $5 million and just over $1 million, respectively, on ads in this district. Additionally, Trump’s super PAC, MAGA Inc., recently purchased $100,000 in ads in this district opposing Harvey, as reported in filings submitted to the Federal Election Commission (FEC) on October 12.
Pennsylvania Democratic Chair Eugene DePasquale told CNBC: “This is how you know where his loyalty lies. Donald Trump and MAGA Inc. came in and spent $100,000 to bail him out because they know that when it really matters, he’ll stand by them.”
According to FEC filings, as of October 14, Fitzpatrick had over $709,000 in campaign funds, while Harvey had slightly more than $409,000 in cash on hand, giving Fitzpatrick a clear advantage in fundraising.
NRCC spokesperson Reilly Richardson cited this fundraising gap, stating that Harvey's campaign is "stalling" and that there is a "significant cash disadvantage."