According to Woofun AI, RBC (RY.US) released a major acquisition scenario outlining a potential acquisition framework by SpaceX (SPCX.US) of Tesla (TSLA.US). Although the bank emphasized that it has no knowledge of any actual acquisition deal currently in progress, this theoretical model has sparked widespread market discussion about the potential revaluation of the two giants if they were to merge.
Woofun AI's compiled data shows that the transaction details have undergone significant changes. In the hypothetical all-stock exchange scenario, SpaceX (SPCX.US) proposes to acquire Tesla (TSLA.US) at $480 per share, resulting in a combined valuation of $3.74 trillion. Compared to analyst Tom Narayan’s July projection of $3.31 trillion and Tesla shareholders owning 54% of the merged entity, the latest model reduces Tesla shareholders’ stake to 48%, with SpaceX shareholders holding 52%.
This means SpaceX (SPCX.US) investors gain approximately $422 billion in additional value, while Tesla (TSLA.US) shareholders' stake is valued at around $1.8 trillion, representing a roughly 30% premium. RBC (RY.US) believes that combining Tesla’s robotics manufacturing business with SpaceX’s AI infrastructure, including the Terafab semiconductor initiative, is expected to generate synergies.
Market reactions and risks coexist. In September, when asked why the two companies still operate independently, Musk called it a "great question" and hinted that he might take action given their increasingly close collaboration. Gary Black, partner at Future Fund, warned that the acquisition premium paid in SpaceX (SPCX.US) shares could be eroded by arbitrage; investors could assess the combined value using Tesla’s (TSLA.US) lower valuation multiples, potentially allowing arbitrageurs to capture the premium before the deal closes. Barclays (BCS.US) analyst Dan Levy noted that related announcements could be made prior to Tesla’s (TSLA.US) shareholder meeting on December 3. Polymarket data shows an 18% probability of an official announcement by December 31 and a 64% probability by the end of 2027, with trading volume exceeding $1.4 million. In response to the news, Tesla (TSLA.US) shares rose more than 3% to $367, while SpaceX (SPCX.US) shares climbed over 2% to $150.
Key upcoming milestones are approaching: SpaceX (SPCX.US) will release its earnings report on Tuesday, October 20, and Tesla (TSLA.US) will announce its results on Wednesday, October 21. These earnings disclosures will serve as a critical window to validate merger assumptions and market expectations; investors should closely monitor how the financial data impacts valuation models.