Raoul Pal believes that the key to determining whether a public blockchain can sustain long-term growth lies not in short-term price movements, but in its on-chain performance during significant market corrections. During a discussion with members of the Sui Network ecosystem, he noted that many projects rapidly lose activity during deep downturns, while only a few public blockchains continue to maintain usage and economic output.
Ethereum, Solana, and Sui remain active.
Pal noted that during the recent downturn, only Ethereum, Solana, and Sui maintained strong "economic density." He pointed out that many crypto assets saw significant declines in network activity and ecosystem metrics after losing 80% to 90% of their value during the correction.
In comparison, these three chains still maintain noticeable on-chain activity and user engagement. Pal believes this performance suggests they are more likely to survive in the long-term competition.
Sui is gaining more attention
Pal’s evaluation of Sui is particularly positive. He noted that Sui, as a relatively new Layer 1 network, has shown signs of sustainable growth.
He also noted that Sui has surpassed Solana in per capita economic output in certain areas. Pal believes this indicates that Sui users are not merely engaging in speculative trading, but are participating in more genuine on-chain activities. Sui recently celebrated its third anniversary, meaning it is still in its early growth phase.
In the future, only a few dominant blockchains may remain.
Pal compares the competition among public blockchains to the early days of the internet and cloud computing industries. He believes that, in the end, it won't be many projects that dominate, but rather a few.
He expects that, in the long term, the crypto industry may ultimately retain only three to five major Layer 1 blockchains. According to his assessment, Ethereum and Solana have already solidified their positions, while Sui is gradually showing signs of entering the mainstream ecosystem.