According to QCP Capital’s latest market report, BTC opened July strongly, in line with historical seasonality—July has historically averaged a 7.5% gain, making it one of BTC’s strongest months. Last Thursday, the U.S. June non-farm payrolls data added only 57,000 jobs, roughly half of market expectations. The weaker-than-expected data provided short-term support, helping BTC rebound from the $58,000 support level. Meanwhile, implied volatility in the crypto market has slightly declined, and near-term put skew has narrowed. There is clear demand for July-end $70,000 call options, reflecting that some capital is positioning for seasonal momentum. However, QCP also highlights downside risks: some market participants are drawing parallels to July 2022, when BTC briefly reclaimed the 200-week moving average before resuming its downtrend in August and ultimately bottoming in October. Strong demand for year-end $58,000 put options further confirms lingering market caution. QCP notes that if BTC can sustainably hold above $64,000 this week, it would further boost market confidence.
QCP: July Has Historically Been Strong for BTC, with an Average Gain of 7.5%
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Summary
BTC opened July with a strong rebound, rising above $58,000 following weak U.S. nonfarm payrolls data. QCP Capital notes that July has historically delivered an average 7.5% gain for BTC. Implied volatility has declined, and demand for $70,000 call options suggests a seasonal rally is being priced in. BTC dominance remains stable amid cautious positioning, with $58,000 put options showing year-end demand. QCP warns of risks, citing a similar pattern in 2022. Holding above $64,000 this week could reinforce bullish sentiment.
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