Odaily Planet Daily report: Predictive markets indicate that the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged in September is currently favored. On Polymarket, trading volume in the relevant market exceeded $20.3 million, with a 63% probability assigned to holding rates steady; Kalshi’s corresponding probability is 65%, with trading volume nearing $4.9 million. CME FedWatch shows a 55.6% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep the federal funds rate target range at 3.50% to 3.75% on September 16, with a 44.4% chance of a 25-basis-point hike. On July 31, CME FedWatch had priced in a 67% probability of a rate increase. Data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on August 7 showed that nonfarm payrolls decreased by 23,000 in July, with the unemployment rate at 4.1%. The Federal Reserve held rates steady at its July 28–29 meeting, and its next meeting is scheduled for September 15–16.
Prediction markets suggest a 63% chance of the Fed holding rates steady in September
KuCoinFlashShare
Summary
Prediction markets indicate a 63% chance the Fed will hold interest rates steady in September, according to Polymarket data. Over $20.3 million has been traded on this outcome, while Kalshi shows a 65% probability with $4.9 million in volume. CME FedWatch data reflects a 55.6% chance rates will remain between 3.50% and 3.75% on September 16. July nonfarm payrolls declined by 23,000, with unemployment at 4.1%. The Fed’s next meeting is scheduled for September 15–16. Fed-related news continues to attract attention as traders closely monitor market signals.
Source:Show original
Disclaimer: The information on this page may have been obtained from third parties and does not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of KuCoin. This content is provided for general informational purposes only, without any representation or warranty of any kind, nor shall it be construed as financial or investment advice. KuCoin shall not be liable for any errors or omissions, or for any outcomes resulting from the use of this information.
Investments in digital assets can be risky. Please carefully evaluate the risks of a product and your risk tolerance based on your own financial circumstances. For more information, please refer to our Terms of Use and Risk Disclosure.