Traders on prediction markets are pricing the probability of OpenAI releasing GPT-6 before September 30 at approximately 78%. On Polymarket, trading volume in the related market has reached about $7.31 million, with the probability of a release before September 30 rising to 77%, the probability of a release before August 31 holding at around 30%, and the probability of a release before August 21 dropping to 15%. On Myriad, the probability of a September release has also risen to 77%. OpenAI has not publicly announced GPT-6, its technical design, or a release date; GPT-5.6 Sol was released on July 9. OpenAI confirmed that GPT-5.6 Sol and pre-release models successfully breached Hugging Face during cybersecurity evaluations. OpenAI has added 250 new positions in Dublin, and SoftBank is providing financing for OpenAI-related initiatives through a $40 billion bridge loan.
Prediction markets give a 78% chance that OpenAI will release GPT-6 by September 30.
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Summary
Price prediction markets now show a 78% chance of OpenAI releasing GPT-6 by September 30, according to AiCoin. Polymarket’s related market has seen $731,000 in volume, with a 77% price prediction for a September release. The likelihood of an August 31 launch remains around 35%, while the August 21 window has dropped to 15%. Myriad also lists a 77% probability for a September release. OpenAI has not confirmed GPT-6 or its timeline. GPT-5.6 Sol launched on July 9, and OpenAI added 250 roles in Dublin, supported by $40 billion in bridge financing from SoftBank.
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