Odaily Planet Daily reports that prediction markets have converged on pricing for the Fed’s September meeting: a 74% probability of holding rates steady, a 25% probability of a 25-basis-point hike, and a near-1% probability of a cut. Trading volume on Polymarket’s related contract reached $33.9 million; Kalshi, a regulated exchange under the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), shows a 73.5% probability of no change, with bets totaling nearly $10 million. Dastan’s prediction platform Myriad indicates a probability of approximately 71% for this outcome. At its July meeting, the Fed voted 9-3 to maintain rates at 3.50% to 3.75%, with three policymakers supporting a hike. The FOMC will convene on September 15–16, with a statement scheduled for release on September 16; a survey found that nearly 70% of economists expect rates to remain unchanged for the remainder of 2026. (Decrypt)
Prediction Markets Show 74% Probability of Fed Rate Hold at September Meeting
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Summary
Price prediction platforms indicate a 74% chance the Fed will maintain rates unchanged at its September meeting, according to Fed news from Odaily. Prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi reflect this outlook, with $33.9 million and nearly $10 million in bets placed, respectively. Myriad estimates the probability of a hold at 71%. The Fed last held rates at 3.50%-3.75% in July. The FOMC meets on September 15–16, with a survey showing 70% of economists expect no change through 2026.
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