Author: Robert Hackett
Compiled by: DeepChain TechFlow
DeepSight Summary: According to a16z Crypto’s data brief, prediction market trading volume surged past $14.4 billion last week for the first time, marking the third consecutive week of record highs—up from just $5–6 billion at the start of the year. More striking is the non-sports segment—politics, economics, and geopolitics—which reached $3.6 billion in a single week, exceeding last year’s entire weekly market volume (including sports). While the World Cup boosted momentum, growth has long moved far beyond sports betting.
Last week, prediction market weekly trading volume surged to $14.4 billion for the first time, up from $5-6 billion at the start of the year. The previous all-time high (around $10 billion) was only set just a week ago.
Across all platforms combined, today’s trading volume is more than ten times what it was a year ago.
Caption: Weekly trading volume trend in prediction markets, reaching $14.4 billion last week, compared to approximately $5-6 billion at the start of the year.
Open interest, the total amount of outstanding positions not yet settled, reached $1.6 billion last week, marking the third consecutive week of new weekly records.
Unlike trading volume, open interest only increases when new positions are opened faster than old ones are closed. Therefore, when this curve rises, it indicates that more real capital is being deployed into these markets.
Since last autumn, this curve has steadily risen. During this period, open interest increased by approximately eight times, from under $200 million to $1.6 billion.
Caption: Open interest has increased approximately eightfold since last autumn, rising from under $200 million to $1.6 billion.
The World Cup has drawn away significant attention and capital, causing other areas to rise as well. Last week, non-sports trading volume—covering categories such as politics, economics, geopolitics, and current events—reached $3.6 billion combined on Kalshi and Polymarket. This figure exceeds the total weekly trading volume of the entire prediction market (including sports) from last year.
In July 2025, non-sports weekly trading volume was only around $200 million. It has since increased by approximately 18 times, and the slope has noticeably steepened this month.
Acknowledgments: Data and charts courtesy of Ryan Holloway and Robert Hackett (Editor-at-Large, Special Projects, a16z crypto).