While teams fiercely compete for the World Cup trophy, a hidden whale is quietly profiting in the prediction market.
On Polymarket, an account with the username swisstony has a total historical profit of $18.62 million, with $10.33 million earned in just the past month. The account was first registered in July 2025, making it relatively new; however, due to its remarkable profits, its homepage views have surged to 922,200.
As of July 13, the total number of predictions for this account reached 139,617, with the current position value approximately $606,100. Notably, the current position is almost entirely concentrated on the France vs. Spain FIFA World Cup semifinal match on July 14, 2026. This includes a bet on France losing the match, with approximately $160,000 already wagered. Additionally, the account has placed numerous bets on specific scoreline details, primarily betting "NO" to target returns of 5%-10%.
This address has maintained a win rate of 52.9%, with over 245,000 total positions and trading volumes in the hundreds of millions of dollars. These figures place it among the top tier within Polymarket’s overall ecosystem. Public research shows that most retail addresses consistently incur losses over time, while a small number of high-frequency, systematic accounts achieve significant positive returns through scaled execution. While swisstony’s win rate is not exceptionally high, its substantial trading frequency and position management amplify its positive expected value (EV) advantage.
Since creating the account about a year ago, this address has executed a total of 139,617 predictions. This translates to an average of approximately 380 trades per day, or 16 per hour, 24/7 without interruption—most likely powered by a high-frequency quantitative bot driven by API.
Its bio lists “trash panda” (raccoon). In North American culture, raccoons are survival experts known for rummaging through trash bins. This signature perfectly captures its core strategy: profiting from Polymarket’s vast sea of data noise and tiny price discrepancies to build a multi-million-dollar empire.
Over 17 profitable trades exceeding $1 million each
Reviewing the profits from this address, the remarkable aspect is that it achieved 17 profitable trades exceeding $1 million each, with the largest occurring on June 25 in Germany. The whale bet on NO and earned $2,221,241, yielding a profit of 111.67%.
The screenshot shows generally high ROI, with a clear advantage in purchase price. The investment size is substantial, with individual transactions often ranging from $400,000 to $1,000,000.
This whale favors large bets on "No" (underdog) against overvalued favorite teams: Germany, Paraguay (appearing multiple times), England, and Japan. Purchase prices ranged mostly between 35.8¢ and 53.7¢, corresponding to implied win probabilities of approximately 46%–64% at the time—but these favorites ultimately lost or failed to win. This is a classic underdog betting strategy.
100x return
In predictions, when the market experiences an event it deemed impossible, the profit returns can be extraordinarily high. This whale is not only skilled at making large bets with large stakes, but also excels at making small bets with large returns.
Using the match in the image as an example, the purchase price was extremely low: 0.2¢–1.2¢ (implying a market probability of only 0.2%–1.2%). Most investments were only around a few thousand dollars, yet each contributed over $100,000 in profit.
What the market once considered nearly impossible actually happened—accounts achieved high returns at minimal cost.
Allocating small amounts of capital to extremely low-probability events is like a systematic, lottery-style approach. If successful, it can generate profits of $100,000 or more at an extremely low cost, serving as a valuable supplement to overall profitability. While these high-multiple trades require minimal risk capital per trade, their win rate is extremely low—most similar bets will result in total loss.
Even though most of these bets will lose (because the odds are indeed low), occasionally hitting a few can significantly boost overall profits without substantially eroding the initial capital.
Overall, this account is likely operated by an automated system that targets a large number of niche, low-liquidity markets where significant mispricings are more common, then executes a dual-track strategy to profit.
Large capital bets against popular strong teams, while small capital bets on extreme underdogs. Combining both ensures stable large-scale profits while boosting overall returns through high-odds trades.